some trotsky views on neoconartists
trotsky (Iraq) ID#377387:
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as expected by anyone with a smattering of common sense ( and predicted right here, even BEFORE the war began ) , the post war situation in Iraq is turning into an uncontrollable quagmire. official propaganda still insists on portraying the Iraqi guerrilla as being fought by 'remnants of the Baath regime', but again, anyone following the news on an international basis ( i.e. going beyond Fox TV pablum ) knows this to be wishful thinking at best, or a bald-faced lie at worst. Saddam's buddies are on the lam...they mostly worry about survival at this stage. it is interesting to note in this context that catching prominent regime figures has not served to decrease the frequency or severity of the attacks, on the contrary.
it is reasonable to assume that by now thousands of 'mujaheddin' ( 'holy warriors' ) have entered Iraq to carry on their crusade against the infidels just as they have done in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation.
now don't get me wrong - i actually wish for the US administration to succeed in establishing a democratic Iraq that looks to the West as an ally. after all, the deed ( invasion ) is done...we can't turn the clock back. and as i've said before, no-one is sad that Saddam and his cronies are gone, probably least of all the Iraqis, aside from those few who thrived under the regime ( one hears however that some are beginning to pine for the times of running water and electricity ) .
however, the question is not 'what do we wish for', the question is, 'what can we actually accomplish?'. on that score, the outlook is sobering to put it mildly. if the occupation forces were to leave Iraq tomorrow, it would immediately fall apart into at least three different statelets, and quite possibly civil war would break out, as the Sunni centre would want neither the Shiites nor the Kurds to make off with all the oil. quite likely Southern Iraq would become a theocracy indistinguishable from the Persian model...only the Kurdish North could be counted on to develop into a reliable Western ally, but there is Turkey right at their doorstep, determined to not allow an independent Kurdish state, no matter the cost.
so the occupiers are stuck in Iraq, like it or not. and the cost, both in blood and treasure, will continue to mount. in the end, when failure is finally admitted after perhaps a decade of attrition, the power vacuum left by Iraq's demise can be counted on to produce as-of-yet unforeseeable, but presumably wide-ranging consequences.
today's attack on the UN HQ in Iraq suggests that a UN led force would run into similar problems as the USUK forces - but one can probably still assume that it would at least be more acceptable to the general population, since it would be regarded as less humiliating ( one of the factors vastly underestimated by the coalition is obviously the people's pride ) . i believe that approach will eventually be tried, perhaps by the next administration.
one good thing to come from all of this is that obviously the neo-con imperialist policy model has failed at the first available opportunity, which gives rise to the hope that this group of Macchiavellian social engineers has passed the zenith of its influence. be warned though that now that they're desparate, they may opt for taking a gamble on yet another war. i know, it seems unlikely now, but these people are extremely arrogant and convinced of their 'mission'. their zeal shouldn't be underestimated...after all, they have mostly Trotskyist roots, and as students of history know, the Fourth International displayed all the fervor of a religious organization. now that they finally got their 'permanent revolution' going, under a Republican government no less ( LOL ) of the mightiest military machine in the world they won't just slink back into obscurity without a fight. ultimately they'll probably be toppled by a revolt of the tax slaves though. |
