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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 690.27

+0.3%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (40082)	8/19/2003 4:05:57 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (3) of 69207

Hi Harry: But ng supplies (build) always rises in the summer. The question is are there enough rigs out drilling to replace the supplies used once the cold weather of Nov hits. In the US we have a position of encouraging ng use (new home heating and electrical power generation) while discouraging new drilling (environmental issues). Add in the factor that the NG companies like dvn really didn't add new rigs after the 2000 spike (now of course dvn has been adding supply / capicity thru acquisitions) and you see what happened last winter. Now the build this summer has been greater than originally forecast (indicating more ng drilling has come on line) but so far is still not great enough to avoid an increase this winter (as last I checked b/4 my vacation the storage level this year is still below last years levels). Now we have not had any hurricanes really shutting down the gulf to date which also throws a crimp in production. You may want to look @ some companies like eenc, crzo, dble, peng, royl. Chech the charts for the right price but I've found the best time to enter the ng stocks is in Oct / Nov time frame before the cold hits. While I played pque earlier this summer it is not increasing production so should be avoided unless it spikes down again. Tim Related back in 2000 when ng hit $10 the drillers did not add capacity as the had just gone thru a period where they had to lay off and down size and the laid off workers had also left the industry. Now with the job situation we should see a reverse. Showing my age I remember back in the late 70's there was a mass exodus to Houston area as this was where the jobs were. A boom in Texas while the northern mid west and east were losing jobs. Then in 82 / 83 as the US came out of a recession Houston / Midland and the other oil dependent areas went into a depression.

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