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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: jimsioi who wrote (17239)8/19/2003 9:35:29 PM
From: Little Joe  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
Jim:

I just don't understand how you can look at those charts and give the commercials the time of day. The best you can say is that the last two times, prior to the current time. they went over 100K net short the market corrected and then resumed its uptrend. The charts clearly show a tendency to trade against the trend whether on a long term basis or a short term basis. The last time they went over 100K short seems to have coincided with a bottom and not a top.

So what, in the face of their horrible record, should we conclude based on a few examples that suddenly this indicator works. By the way, I remember a similar discussion on this thread where the magic number was 60K net short and if you look back you will see that there were a few times when 60K did appear to turn the trend. The fact is it is that the current pattern, for whatever reason, is to short every rally until the market turns, then back off a little and start shorting again.

Jim, you may be right about the price of gold, although I don't think so, but to use the COT's as the basis of your reasoning just flys in the face of the facts. At least that is how I see it. I think your charts show, if anything, that following the commercials is a good way to loose all of your money.

Little joe
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