I Inside Iraq – “Dead Enders”
Ia Baathists
The members of this group are more varied than the “coalition” propaganda implies. Some are former beneficiaries of Saddam’s régime. Others are believers in the Baathist ideology – a mixture of Islam and socialism. And finally some are members of tribes, that have historically been allied with the Baathists, and although a particular individual may not be an ideologue, he may have a strong tribal affiliation.
Ib Moqtada Sadr
Most readers of this thread are familiar with Moqtada Sadr. As the son of Muhammad Baqir Al-Sadr
geocities.com
he has a standing that is not usually given to those as young as him. Commonly referred to as a firebrand in western media, I believe he is far more cunning than such an appellation would imply. True, he gives fiery Anti-American speeches, but he cleverly gives no overt opposition to the US, and hence no excuse for an attack. His group has established wide support for their philanthropic endeavors. An earlier comment relating his age to the youthful Iraqi demographic profile is a good point.
It’s still a little soon to get a definitive reading on who the ultimate Iraqi leaders will be, but Moqtada has made many “right moves”. The “situation” in Iraq is not unlike the early chaotic period of the Weimar Republic. During this period Hitler had his Beer hall putsch in ‘23
historyplace.com
At the time, less radical people thought this was the end of Hitler. Instead, it gave him a national recognition he didn’t have, and a position as an alternative if the establishment couldn’t “get the job done”. A decade later in ’33, the Germans decided to give Hitler a try.
The establishing of the Sunni alliance, if it persists, may be significant. Only someone whose appeal can cross the Shia Sunni divide can hope to unite the country behind him. I have no way of knowing, but both the cadence and content of the Senior official in
Message 19217046
sounds like Bremer to me. He may use the word distraction to belittle Moqtada’s influence, but if he’s just a “distraction”, why discuss the subject?
II From Outside Iraq - jihadists
IIa Saudi-Iraqi border
Saudis who have gone to Iraq have established links with sympathetic Iraqis in the northern area between Baghdad, Mosul and Tikrit, where they have hidden in safe-houses, a Saudi Islamist source said on Monday.
from
Message 19225211
IIb Syrian-Iraqi border
In a earlier post datelined Damascus,
Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of volunteer fighters from all over the Arab world have crossed into Iraq via Syria over the last few weeks.
and
"If the situation requires it, the jihad against the Americans will continue," said Talal Hussein, a representative of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, who returned to Damascus from Iraq this week.
from
chicagotribune.com
show that jihadist from “all over the Arab world” have answered their Imam’s call for jihad, and that “pros” from the Palestinian conflict are involved as well.
IIc Iranian-Iraqi border
I don’t have a good current reference about this border, but given its length, and the paucity of “Coalition” troops, I expect that the border is still “porous”
usatoday.com
Now, I don’t know whether Moqtada’s group has started to provide safe-houses for jihadists yet, but the hospitality tradition among Arabs is deeply rooted – especially when they share a purpose.
III Organization
I’m aware that this post is a little disjoint. In part, that is because the “situation” is unorganized. Ever watch a group of disturbed ants. At first there’s a lot of apparently random milling around. But if there are enough ants, in a short time the organizational level is amazing. Those opposing the American occupation are still “milling around”.
Today, on different news programs, I heard the current party line. Those opposed to the US have been so damaged that they have had to “shift tactics” from attacking the US forces directly to attacking infrastructure. I agree with the critic of this analysis. There hasn’t been any “shift”, rather an augmentation. Now the attacks are on US forces (and anyone seen as allied with US forces), and infrastructure. Moreover, this implies a higher level of organization. It’s no longer just a game of “pot shots” at soldier “targets of opportunity”, but “hit’um where it hurts” like the Turkish pipeline.
The current attrition rate of Americans is causing some rethinking, but to really force the “swing middle” to reassess will require a “Tet” like offensive. The jihadists can’t possibly “pull this off” without considerable help from the Iraqis. And the Iraqis need both the jihadists fervor and expertise. Foreign and domestic, amateur and professional, the opposition is coalescing. Will we have the Iraqi “Tet” by next Ramadan?
JMO
lurqer |
