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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: jimsioi who wrote (17239)8/20/2003 7:03:43 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
jim & vt - I try to maintain my CoT database and pass some numbers into the charts.
Don't know if they are usable as:
- to the contrary of base metals where commercials are well defined (the miners, wholesalers, ...) and the indexes (MMs and specialists) I do not know who the commercials are for gold (miners or bullion banks, or both).
- CoT on gold (Saville has a word on it) does not take into account the carry trades or some exotic contracts (forward sales with no deadline). CoT is also limited to CBOT and COMEX (wich is 20-25% of the London traded volume).

Then, as usual with any data, raw numbers have IMVHO no meaning. Total open interest is no less than the translation of activity on a given commodity (but has to be distributed on some typical contracts. For example, currently the Dec gold makes 70% of the total O/I against 50% 3 weeks ago).
Also thinking that a relative short position vs. total o/i could be indicative, but I also expect that one should neutralize a certain mass of contracts or constant.
Then apply trendlines as it is the reversal of a trend that gives the signal.

Then, there is maridome.com which now sells the contrarian data. To me, an analysis is valid until the herd starts using it. At that time, black-box what-if softwares will include that particular crowd behaviour into their parameters and trade against the crowd.

So, when I will have quantified these several ideas in a model, I will be able to make an opinion.
And base that opinion on data representing 20% of I don't know what.
Will I really spend time on this? <ggg>
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