Re the COTS, I give up....
I'll likely post the data when I think it's meaningful, but I don't expect anybody else to care or agree with my interpretations of the data....
It's only one of many things I watch to try and figure out which way the PM markets are headed. I'd rather be buying when the commercials are long (or have significantly reduced their positions) and prices have declined than buying or holding large positions when the commercials are not only selling but doing it at record levels when prices have rallied and or stalled...hello $365.
If they will go net long at $265, and massively short....record short, one hundred dollars later, you call it the natural course of hedging if you want to....call it inmaterial if you want to....I call it a signal....
If they started to cover would it make a point...??? Yes, I think it would.....oddly they only cover after declines, why, because the world trade in gold suddenly shrinks.???? NO, because they think the price is going to go UP.
At the extremes, opposite market moves to the extremes their action has significance....Right, not in the middle of a move....Therefore, if the market of GOLD is to rise, and the short commercial open interest with it to new highs, significant investment demand, not speculative froth has to materialize to MORE THAN offset their persistant and aggressive sales.
At the current time the commercial net short position is near an extreme....my only point and observation. |
