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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (429)	8/20/2003 5:26:45 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Big heatwave in Europe so kind of exhausting. Fun and interesting though: France and Italy. This refi slowdown should start to take it's toll on the consumer. Tax refunds are small and spent. Note refis are down to 53.4% (from 75% earlier) of a level that's been halved. WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 20, 2003) – The Mortgage Bankers Association of America’s (MBA’s) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey released today showed the Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications – a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings – for the week ending August 15 decreased by 10.7 percent to 736.7 on a seasonally adjusted basis from 824.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 11.2 percent compared with last week and was down by 33.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 4.9 percent to 389.5 from 409.6 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 14.9 percent to 2756.8 from 3238.4 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which decreased to 1053.2 from 1183.7 the previous week. The Government Index decreased to 208.7 from 225.5 the previous week. “One factor that no doubt negatively affected mortgage applications last week was the blackout in the Northeast that shut down many mortgage offices for at least a day. Unfortunately the nature of our data is such that we cannot estimate the magnitude of the impact,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s vice president of Research and Economics. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 53.4 percent of total applications, from 55.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 23.3 percent from 22.5 percent the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.22 percent from 6.00 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.50 from 1.37 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.56 percent from 5.27 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.41 from 1.42 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs increased to 3.49 from 3.44 the previous week, with points decreasing to 1.02 from 1.03 from the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

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