SARS and Avian Flu Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu

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To: tom pope who wrote (933)	8/20/2003 8:37:56 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) of 4232

There is a continuum of severity within SARS itself which is very age dependent. Older (>50) don't do well. Many die fairly quickly (in 2-3 weeks) and those that get discharged can be in the hospital for months. Younger patients are the opposite. Most survive and get discharged in about 3 weeks. Those that die however, usually are in the hospital for months. For milder cases. not much is known. Most found out they were positive for the virus long after the fact and the amount of transmission by mild cases wasn't well monitored. In Surrey, it is clear that mild cases can be quite infectious, with attack rates greater than 50%. Overall there seem to be some fluctuation related to accumulating mutations. The early cases in Guangdong Province were reported to have low fatality rates (5 deaths in first 310 cases). The early cases involved SARS CoV with the fewest mutations. The most mutations were in Taiwan, where the case mortality rate was highest (over 25%). However, the epidemic suddenly stopped, which is why I think there are seasonal factors. Flu pretty much disappears in the summer, but each fall it starts slow and then peaks in the winter, only to decline again in the spring. Most viral respiratory diseases are seasonal, which is why I think the fall/winter of 2003/2004 will be much worse than last fall/winter. By the time the virus got rolling in March, the season for respiratory disease was already ending. This season I expect the virus to emerge big time from previously hard hit areas. I think that the outbreak in Surrey was just the virus saying "I was not put back in the box" and "I have big plans for the fall and bigger plans for the winter".

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