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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (11089)	8/21/2003 12:27:12 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 95640

RE: "I'm seeing warning signs all over the place in this market..." btb is a 3 month moving average. btb of 1.20, a 20% quarterly growth rate, is not sustainable. 1.05 is more likely to be sustained for 2 or 3 years. Now, back to the statement above. Are you looking at data that includes the period from Oct '98 to Mar '00? From the Oct '98 bottom to year end '98, my portfolio increased 93.3%. From the Oct '02 bottom to today, my portfolio increased 108.3%. So, it has taken ~10 months in this rally to do a little better than it did in ~2 3/4 months in '98. It took 15 more months to get to the top in 2000. I expect the current rally to top in 2006, in ~ 34 months. Insider selling is anothe form of salary. They have had a dry spell for a while. Insider buying tells something, but not too much. We have the Fed flooding the economy with liquidity and all signs indicate that it is working. The Federal government is running huge deficits to support the economy. There is a lot of money on the sidelines after 3 years of a poor economy and a terrible market. If you can't compare your technical indicators to the '98 to '00 rally, I wouldn't bet my money on them.

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