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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: Ilaine who started this subject8/21/2003 1:45:19 AM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) of 1070
 
The latest comment below indicates that WHO does not view the outbreak in Surrey, BC as a public health threat. I think this view is misguided and without scientific basis, in view of the SARS CoV sequence data described in media reports.

Media reports indicate that thus far 7 patients have 800 bp of genetic material that exactly matches SARS CoV. Since jumping from animals in Nov 2002, SARS CoVs have accumulated a large number of mutations which are extremely stable (found in all human SARS CoV isolates or all isolate collected since March, 2003).

Thus, a small amount of sequence identity will date the mutations in the SARS CoV circulating in Surrey, BC. The data reported in the media strongly suggest that the SARS CoV circulating in Surrey, BC has mutated since Nov 2002 and has done so at the exact same locations as the SARS CoV causing fatal SARS. If true it is not some previously undiscovered SARS CoV cousin that has been circulating in Canada undetected for years without serious consequence. Instead it is identical to the SARS CoV causing transmissible probable SARS at Surrey Memorial Hospital, 1 mile from the nursing home in Surrey, BC

A virus containing 800 nt of an exact match with a lethal SARS CoV should be considered a lethal agent until proven otherwise (mutations discovered and scientifically proven to attenuate lethality).

To consider such an agent as a scientific mystery and not a public health threat has no scientific basis. A heavily mutated SARS CoV is akin to an armed and dangerous mass murderer. To consider such a person as just a scientific curiosity can have fatal consequences.

>===== Original Message From "Henry L Niman, PhD" <henry_niman@hms.harvard.edu> =====
washingtonpost.com

WHO Probes SARS-Like Virus in British Columbia

By DeNeen L. Brown
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, August 21, 2003; Page A19

"Thompson said more study is needed to determine the cause of the outbreak. "It is unclear, but it doesn't seem to be a public health emergency," he said. "It is a scientific mystery, not a public health threat."
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