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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (11092)	8/21/2003 12:56:06 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) of 95640

Cary an excellent post. All valid points. Still the insider sell to buy ratio is at all time highs. I realize that insider selling is a form of compensation but it is not just the selling of stocks that concerns me. It is the lack of insider buying. In 1998 we had a lot of insider buying. How come no one is buying? How much insider buying did we see last year before this rally started? Not much because while we got a good technical bottom in the market we did not get a good fundamental one at the same time. Stocks were then and remain now at even more astronomical historically high fundamental valuations. The technical situation in the market is outstanding but there are warnings signs. Big ones in the sentiment readings. The BPNDX/VIX and similar sentiment to fear readings are at or near all time highs. You say no need to worry? I simply disagree. Technically the market looks great. Even so it is nowhere near as strong as it was in 1998 through 2000. We had a very strong economy back then but the stock market got ahead of itself and corrected. Today we seem to be on the cusp of a recovery. The economic numbers back that up. The FED has been extremely supportive but at the same time the federal debt has ballooned to all time highs! I'm concerned because many of our high paying high technology jobs are being taken by workers overseas. Who is going to pay down that debt? Insiders selling their stocks? That's just not going to happen. It's cheaper to build just about anything outside of the US. That leaves us with some very big fundamental problems. But so far you have been right since October. You could be right all through 2006. Still just as the market corrected dramatically after the bubble in 2000 it may correct much sooner than 2006 if this proves to be just another bubble we are seeing today in our stock market. RtS

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