There has been a lot of discussion on valuation. Let's try
it this way. Let's compare 10/8/98, with 10/9/02. These
are major bottoms with different results for the Group and
SOX versus the NASDAQ.
I will state my observation as follows before presenting the
table. I have always felt that in 1998, the semis and
semi-equips had a "good, low" bottom. In other words,
valuations through-out the NASDAQ, and the semi, semi-equips
were "comparable" in terms of being at a bottom.
Not so in the bottom of October 2002. The NASDAQ made a
very "nice" bottom, but the semis and semi-equips did not
follow suit. I always felt it was due to 2 major factors.
First, the market "permanently" "marked up" the evaluation
of the semis and semi-equips because of the tremendous
run-up of those sectors during the Oct 98 to Mar 00 period.
Second, the good first half of 2002 in terms of BtB, etc,
kept the evaluations "high" for the semis and semi-equips
so that even though they fell off tremendously in the fall
of 2002, they never reached the comparable low levels of
evaluation they reached in Oct 1998.
Comparing the 2 dates of 10/8/98 versus 10/9/02, shows the
Group up 21 percent, the SOX up 13 percent and the NASDAQ
down 21 percent. So, if we "crudely" normalize the
difference between 98 and 02, we can "normalize" the
NASDAQ Oct 02 number as the new "floor" and say that
relatively speaking, that compared to the NASDAQ in Oct 98
the Group bottom was 42 percent higher and the SOX was
35 percent higher.
- 10/08/98 10/9/02
- CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE
AMAT* 5.59 10.41 86
ASML 4.38 5.28 21
ASYT 3.13 3.95 26
ATMI 11.50 12.44 8
BRKS 8.38 8.95 7
CMOS 5.00 6.30 26
COHU 6.75 9.99 48
CYMI 6.50 16.74 158
DPMI 17.88 16.07 -10
EGLS 7.94 1.21 -85
FSII 4.25 2.36 -44
HELX 7.88 7.48 -5
KLAC* 10.94 26.15 139
KLIC 5.19 1.95 -62
LRCX 2.93 6.72 129
LTXX 1.31 3.33 154
MTSN 2.75 1.65 -40
NVLS* 7.30 20.17 176
PHTN 2.25 16.15 618
PLAB 9.50 7.90 -17
SMTL 2.57 4.29 67
TER* 7.82 7.22 -8
UTEK 13.56 6.77 -50
VECO 21.63 9.40 -57
WFR 3.63 4.70 29
TOTALS 180.56 217.58 21
SOX-X 189.90 214.06 13
COMPQX1419.12 1114.11 -21
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX |
