Good afternoon Wayne. I almost live on East coast's time, breakafst at noon. <g>
CRB/USD. No answer.
As early as January 1934, at the request of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began the computation of a daily commodity price index, using quotations for sensitive commodities. yadda, yadda crbtrader.com
I would say, the CRB is as bad and index as the CPI. The base changes regularly, but the method remains the same over the years. So, as bad a tool as it can be, this is sometimes the only data series available for long term studies.
Other commodities indexes are, IMHO, also important
SPCI www2.standardandpoors.com
Dow Jones-AIG djindexes.com
and the Journal of Commerce-ECRI joc.com
I have been delaying my DD on these for ages. (Hoping to find a documented comparative study on google <vbg>).
A weakening Dollar (in my logic) should cause the price of imported commodities to rise (OPEC would want more Dollars for the same barrel of oil): cocoa, rubber, oil (and this seems to be all imports in the CRB).
no change on meats, grains as prices are fixed by subsidies. (Resulting in a bonanza for US agricultural exports.)
At first sight, CRB would go up.
Now, if you add the China wildcard: in Europe, Deutsche Affinerie is already complaining that srap metals are through the roof, China buying all they can get.
Should be the same in the US. Base metals and scrap should stay even (increased demand, balanced with competition).
Apparently, at first sight, a Dollar price would have very few influence on the CRB index.
My 2 (Euro-) cents.
Ufff! Got that post sent on only two espressos. <g> |
