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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.73

-5.1%

9:38 AM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (8971)	8/22/2003 11:43:03 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) of 52153

More broadly, pharma has been weak of late - the DRG index has dropped from the 350 high two months ago to 300 today. JNJ is under 50 - it's right at the bottom of my Qcharts list of "% in year" followed closely by SGP. Even crashed biotechs like Alteon and Allos are ahead by that measure. Bottom line is that most pharmas have to run nearly as fast as they can to stay where they are in the face of patent expirations. We still haven't seen the true impact of a generic omeprazole - that should hit this quarter. The Zocor expiration in 2005 might shake the whole statin market as well as just MRK. So is this bullish for biotechs? It's a mixed blessing in my view. Pipeline becomes more valuable, but the biotechs start to look more expensive when compared with sagging pharmas. Generic biotechs are inevitable at some point, but they will have much less impact than current generics - much more expensive to produce and much harder to get approval - the JNJ Eprex problems may end up saving the biotechs from easy generics. Peter

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