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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: yard_man who wrote (79601)	8/22/2003 1:14:06 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 209892

tippet most currency options are OTC and there is no way of knowing direction or anything. In any case the market was caught by surprise I think as the IV started to shrink, it jumped up after the fact. The interesting point is that the big players knew of the USD manipulation in April as the IV rose BEFORE the big move up to 1.193 the IV then was close to 13%. Therefore I think it was manipulation as some of the big market participants asked high prices for their option. Further Merrill Lynch was predicting 1.33 EUR/USD, Morgan Stanley predicted 1.21 by mid Q2 and 1.12 by year end, Deutsche Bank predicted also 1.22 to 1.25 EUR/USD. Now the EUR/USD level is a far cry from their prediction which make me conclude that some one very influential indicated that they want a substantial lower USD. Even Snow when asked at 1.16 about the USD level avoided a direct answer related to the USD strength and gave BS as response. Next day the EUR/USD gapped open over 1%

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