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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 313.69+4.2%Jan 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (11136)8/22/2003 3:51:15 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 95663
 
Sometimes it's hard to get a good handle on your perspective, RtS. I know that reading the printed words doesn't always convey the "spirit" of the message. Please correct me if I'm off base but it seems that you aren't "pleased" that the market and the SOX have gone higher lately? In fact, I've almost sensed an anger or frustration seeping through your posts. Is this just my misinterpretation of your posts or is there more to it?

We never breached the solid trend support line that was discussed over the past few months and my bullish bias has stayed in place since I first mentioned it here. I've seen nothing at all to turn me neutral or bearish, with the caveat that the stocks I was short term trading were getting "tired" and I needed a summer break from trading.

The overall market tone is much more positive lately and we are getting encouraging data points from across the economic spectrum. The semi sector earnings releases in July were relatively strong overall and we've seen follow through in August.

IF...we have a 10% improvement in SCE ordering for 2004 (like the current predictions indicate) with a setup for a strong rebound in 2005-06, it would not be too surprising to see the SOX start pricing in improvements in advance of the actual rebound. It seems to me that this is what we are in the middle of and it looks more bullish since we are coming off some extreme bear market lows.

I'm curious what your short term and medium term views are at this stage?

TIA,
mh
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