Hello DJ, <<Shiites in the South - that's pretty calm compared to the Suníte triangle (as per these days I mean); should I read Stratfor as meaning if Iran gets into dire straights (Paul W sends freedom regards) there's a pincer maneuver planned or possible...>>
I follow Stratfor’s analysis closer than I track the BBC, and I do not normally pay any attention to CNN at all. Stratfor generally restrict itself to (a) here are the observable facts, (b) this is what we understand could be happening, (c) these are the future possibilities, (d) if scenario one comes to be, then …, (e) if scenario two becomes real, then …, and (f) we think matters may develop thus ...
I am in resonance with Marek_W, and believe that when a situation is complicated enough, the players are dealing with maximum ambiguity, and no one is in effective control, then the matter will most likely get worse before they get better, tending towards max chaos, i.e. the worst case for some party and the best case for another faction. In the case of Iraq, the Shiites are getting stirred from within and without, which easily suggest less advantageous possibilities. Equally easily, the Q word comes to mind, as in Quagmire, as in 150k troops may not be enough, and this time, there is not even the inkling of mention about ‘home by xmas’.
The powers that be which decided to (a) first putting N.Korea, Iran and Iraq in the same strange basket so as to warn them of what may be coming, (b) alienated own tradition allies so as to be isolated, (c) then waltzed into Iraq without a thought-out plan and adequate financing, (c) became bogged down to the defense in Iraq, and (d) proceeded to provoke Iran and Syria and piss off Saudi Arabian general population while being far from having secured Iraq, (e) is losing grip in Afghanistan, and (f) is facing a WMD threat from N.Korea, has some decisions to make. The practice of geopolitical fantasy-ism by strategy neophytes has already proved to be interesting and will not likely lead to any optimal outcome.
Haim posted Message 19237365 <<Until the Clan of Saud will not fall or cede power there will be no peace in the ME>> and KrysoL responded <<My hunch is that if the Saud clan falls, it will be replaced by something far worse>>, to which I respond, yup and yup, more confusion, maximum chaos, and increasing ambiguity, towards resolution that will be TeoTwawKi.
The interim resolution may or may not be Haim’s <<it may be some turmoil and Saudi Arabia will be broken in 3 to 4 states with the oil riches going to their rightful owners>>, but of more practical interest to BBR, can USD 100/brl oil be ruled out?
Regarding Saudi Arabia, this is one latest view … Message 19237807 Is the House of Saud Crumbling? Aug 17, 2003 … should the House of Saud collapse, there appears to be no single group ready to step into the void. is a recommended read.
What are you thinking about money, how to get more, and avoid less ?
Chugs, Jay |
