Brian, I think INTC's announcement was good, but the
question is - how good? Let's look at INTC's past, both for
the most recent 5 years and then the most recent 5 quarters.
(DEC) (B) (B)
YR TOTAL NET
ENDING REV INC
1998 26.3 6.1
1999 29.4 7.3
2000 33.7 10.5
2001 26.5 1.3
2002 26.8 3.1
- (B) (B)
QTR TOTAL NET
ENDING REV INC
6/02 6.3 0.45
9/02 6.5 0.69
12/02 7.2 1.05
3/03 6.8 0.92
6/03 6.8 0.90
Now lets put down their statement from Briefing.com
<<Co announces that Q3 business is trending above
expectations. Consequently, co raising Q3 revenue outlook to
$7.3-$7.8 bln vs previous guidance of $6.9-$7.5 bln --
Reuters Research consensus $7.26 bln.>>
They raised revenues .4B on the low end(6%) and .3B on
the high end(4%). Let's say they hit the exact middle
of the new range, 7.55 bln. That's good and says that it
will beat anything in the past 5 quarters, the most being
the 7.2 bln registered in 12/02.
Let's say the 7.55 bln is the new quarterly "run rate".
Multiplying that by 4 gives us 30.2 bln yearly. In 1999
they did 29.4 bln, in 2000 they did 33.7 bln.
I think the news is good and INTC will further rise in
share price, but I think that's all it is - it is good - not
fantastic.
Another question to ask - will revenue continue to rise, or
will increased productivity, competition, etc, put a lid
on strong revenue gains - something that will take it to
the next level. INTC was selling in the mid 20's in the
fall of 1997 - hit a peak of 75 in the fall of 2000 - fell
to 13 in Oct 02 and is now back to 27(more than 100 percent
gain). Will it double from here, and if so, how long will
it take?
Don |
