Yes, most of the current guerrilla activity is coming from Sunni areas. In Vietnam, there were areas that never supported the Communists. The French, and later the Americans, recruited from non-Vietenamese hill tribes, and the Catholic minority, and private armies, whover they could. But these troops were not numerous enough, or not loyal enough, or both. They were always seen as proxies for foreigners. The Viet Minh, and Viet Cong, made the country ungovernable (by foreigners), with support that was nowhere near universal.
The Shiites aren't yet supporting guerrilla activity, imo, because:
1. they fear a return of Saddam
2. they are hoping to win power without war
Time (or the killing of Saddam), will end the first reason. For the second, we can only avoid disillusioning the Shiites, by letting them come to power. And I mean leaders who are chosen by the Iraqi people, not ones hand-picked by U.S. soldiers. Such a government will almost certainly be nationalist, anti-Israeli, and Islamic (if not Islamist). It will prove its nationalism, by telling the U.S. army to leave.
The Kurds are not our proxies, they are independant players, with their own armies. They will make an accomodation with the coming Iraqi Islamic Republic, or declare their independence. |
