russwinter, re your contrary opinions...
Russ, your wrote, "In some ways the gold price rally has been poor given the near
perfect conditions." I'd say it has stunk given perfect conditions. And we know why. The commercials have been feeding paper into the market in record amounts. Had they not been; had they not been so keen on selling so heavily at $365-8 and stretched out their sales, I'd be less inclined to think they know something the market is about to find out....G7 meeting on September the 20th is a date I'm watching.
"Impending liquidity correction/contraction" why particularly now??? or soon...is a question readers likely will have..(first attempt to access your reference on the subject crashed my brouser)..Is the economy off the floor sufficiently that the Fed can pull back some....??
As to valuation of miners....they are going off the screen....I have GLG valuation to sales at 14 to one, for example!!!!.. GOLD, the Mali miner, has a similar ratio of 4.13, which is reasonable as is NEM's, but in Newmont's case where is the PE....in the thirties....The miners have anticipated a gold price that has yet to arrive....only further asset allocation by under invested institutions and individuals can drive them higher and that will stop if the liquidity break you suggest is in the offing materializes.
Great set of posts recently....I hope you have the time and patience to expound on them further and answer my probably sophomoric questions.
Action of the DMI and RSI indicators suggests a topping action has occurred and that the HUI has the best chance of trading between 190 and 176 for a while, assuming Gold makes a foray that gets seen as a breakout and asset allocaters add miner positions. I'm thinking the whole seasonal cycle may have shifted forward. As a consequence highs will be seen early in September, and that if indeed there is a liquidity contraction, levels seen or to be seen soon will be the best till early February '04..
hui
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcaynay[dc][pb40!c200!f][iut!Ul14!Ub14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G
Gold's seasonal view - rise starts slow in September and really gains momentum in the second half. One wonders how much a couple of strong years might have magnified the degree of the September advance.. I'm thinking we are about a half month shifted forward this year....Rally in Gold with the stronger seasonal is about to begin that will see it "catch up" with the miners advance..special situations, special illiquid situations, ie. "reserve and exploration plays" will out perform while the HUI makes a broadening top???
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