Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (11210)	8/24/2003 7:24:57 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Don's tables can be used to support a lot of different points of views but all business cycles are distorted by current conventional thinking bubble or no bubble. I see that you used CATS as a terrific example of a stock that outperformed your favorite eight during the last big upswing. Thanks for the prime example of a small company whose stock really performed fantastically. KLIC may not be a great future example but it is a good one today. Honestly I don't think even think KLIC is a great company especially compared to your eight favorites. Of course neither is CATS but we are talking about stock performance. Personally I do not believe that any of your eight will be be tremendous comparative performers from the bottom of this cycle. They will do well but other stocks will do better in my humble opinion. As companies they are simply too large. As stocks they never got cheap enough to show the kind of huge percentage gain that you saw in your example CATS. KLIC actually did get pretty cheap since it sold well below book value. It will no doubt not perform as well as CATS but I will state that what I believe you have in your eight favorites is more safety from a severe sell off not assured outperformance in cyclical rallies. That is why KLIC is ahead now from the most recent bottom. CATS at the bottom last cycle was seen as a huge risk. KLIC was seen as a huge risk just a few months ago as were many other stocks. None of those perceived huge risks were stocks listed as your favorite eight. They are great companies and wonderful stocks. They just never got comparatively cheap and never will in my opinion see huge CATS like stock price gains. JMHO, RtS

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