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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Fundamentals

SMH 363.73

-1.3%

Oct 30 5:00 PM EST

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To: Dan3 who wrote (72)	8/24/2003 8:59:46 PM
From: cordob	Read Replies (1) of 82

On the Intel press release: I think this will have far reaching consequences for the semi industry and for how the market perceives it. I posted some analysis on the Fool as shown below: (I think the analysts, which still have Intel at $ 0.90 eps for 2004 will do a number of sequential upwards updates which will drive the semi market) boards.fool.com "So I churned some numbers in my spreadsheet and the following came out: On old guidance 17.7 cents/share On new average guidance (7.55 B and 56%) 21.2 cents/share First call estimates still stuck at 19 cents/ share on previous guidance. That is 1.3 cents higher than my est. on the previously available guidance. So let's use the differential and assume that within a short time First Call will update to approx. 22.5 cents/share. But then note the wording in the PR: intel.com Intel expects revenue to be between $7.3 billion and $7.8 billion, as compared to the previous range of $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion. The company's Intel Architecture business is generally trending higher across all geographies and channels while demand for communications products remains soft. Gross margin is expected to be 56 percent, plus or minus a couple of points, compared to previous expectation of 54 percent, plus or minus a couple of points. All other expectations are unchanged. Intel is of course going to beat that 22.5 cents by at least one or two cents. Out of the upper end of margin guidance (up two points) we get another 1.6 cents. Out of upper guidance for revenue, but mid-margin we get another 1.5 cents. Out of the upper guidance for both revenue and margin (assuming 2 points more) we get 2.1 cents more. But that would be a bit optimistic. I think Intel is going to report 24 cents plus 1-2 cents or minus 1 cent (rather plus than minus:) Note that analyst'expectations for 2004 still stand at only 90 cents, so we have not seen the last of this, I would think." All the best Cor

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