Odd poll results, pointed out by "The Weekly Standard."
AS THIS WEEKEND'S Los Angeles Times poll shows, there are still plenty of choices for Republicans. Once again, we have a statewide survey that finds Republicans split--22 percent for Arnold, 25 percent for three other Republicans (including former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who's running as an independent but is listed on the ballot as a Republican).
In case you're keeping score at home, here's how the first three recall polls handicap the field:
LA Times (8/16-8/21) PPIC (8/8-8/17) FIELD (8/10-8/13) Average
Recall Davis 50-45 58-36 58-37 55.3-39.3
Bustamante 35 18 25 26
Schwarzenegger 22 23 22 22.3
McClintock 12 5 9 8.7
Ueberroth 7 4 5 5.3
Simon 6 4 8 6
A FEW THOUGHTS: As the risk of running afoul of Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times' pollster, her survey raises lots of questions. (It's worth noting, by the way, that the results are based on a sampling of a wider pool of registered voters, not just likely voters. The PPIC and Field polls stick to likely voters.)
Oddity #1: Schwarzenegger has a positive press conference, runs an upbeat bio spot on statewide TV, and yet the Times reports that only a late surge in the poll brings him back to the same level as the Field and PPIC polls. One would assume that, after firming up his credentials as a fiscal conservative, Arnold would get more support from the right.
Oddity #2: Democrats had a week in which the dominant story line was intraparty division. Dianne Feinstein told Democrats to vote "no" on recall and skip the second half of the ballot; House minority leader Nancy Pelosi said to vote "yes" on Bustamante. Yet, according to Times, anti-recall sentiment is growing. It just doesn't add up.
Oddity #3: Bustamante received key endorsements from Democratic leadership groups, but also unveiled a budget "fix" that, if approved, amounts to the biggest tax increase in California history. Yet, in a survey adjusted for heavier-than-usual Republican turnout, Bustamante's poll numbers are nearly twice as strong as the PPIC's findings.
Oddity #4: The Times find that more than one-third of moderate Republican voters would support Schwarzenegger, and one-fourth would vote for Bustamante. This, even though the media have been telling voters night and day that Arnold is pro-choice and pro-gay rights--moderate to liberal on social issues. Bustamante's strength among Republicans sounds fishy: It's the kind of support you'd expect for a more familiar candidate, like Feinstein.
What this does suggest is that pollsters could have egg on their faces the morning after the recall vote. Unlike normal elections, recall carries all sorts of variables: an unpredictable turnout; the possibility of first-time voters drawn by a celebrity and a Latino Democrat; and the possibility that voters will be confused by a lengthy, two-part ballot. Toss in the other wildcards of California politics--for example, Republicans won the governor's race in 1982 thanks to an unexpectedly large absentee vote--and it could mean a late night of result-watching on the West Coast. |
