(COMTEX) Investor Optimism Rises Slightly in August, According to UBS Index Investors
oresee Higher Returns in the Stock Market Over the Next Year
NEW YORK, Aug 25, 2003 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Investor optimism
rose slightly in July, following a steep drop last month, as investors expressed
increased confidence they will be able to reach their investment goals over then
next 12 months, according to the UBS Index of Investor Optimism(R), a joint
effort of UBS and the Gallup Organization.
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Currently at 61, the overall Index rose 7 points this month from 54 in July.
Conducted monthly, the Index had a baseline of 124 when it was established in
1996.
This month, 54 percent of investors say they are confident in their ability to
achieve their investment targets over the next 12 months, up from 50 percent in
July. Interestingly, substantial investors, those with more than $100,000 in
investable assets, are more likely to share this view, with 63 percent saying
they are optimistic about reaching their investment goals, compared with 49
percent among average investors, those with $10,000 to $100,000 in investable
assets.
Expectations for short-term return, over the next 12 months, jumped in August
following a decline last month. Investors now expect an average 12.0 percent
return on their personal portfolios in the next year, up from 8.6 percent in
July. Younger investors, those under age 40, expect an average rate of return of
13.6 percent, compared with 11.8 percent among older investors, those over age
40. Notably, those surveyed report that they earned an average 5.8 percent on
their investments over the past 12 months, up from 1.2 percent in July and
reaching its highest level since March 2001.
A majority of those surveyed, 61 percent, say now is a good time to invest in
the markets, up from 58 percent last month. Likewise, 60 percent of investors
believe the stock market will be somewhat or much higher a year from now, nearly
unchanged from last month when 59 percent shared this view.
In August, investors were polled about current economic conditions and the
prospects for economic recovery. Among those surveyed, 45 percent say they
believe the U.S. economy is experiencing a recovery, up from 41 percent last
month and reaching its highest level since August 2001 when the Index began
polling on the subject. This compares with 28 percent who believe the economy is
in a slowdown, and 20 percent who say it is in recession. Just 6 percent of
those surveyed believe the economy is in a sustained expansion. Among those who
believe the economy is in a slowdown or a recession, 21 percent believe it will
be on the way to recovery within the next year, another 24 percent say it will
be within two years, and more than half, 54 percent, believe it will be at least
two years from now or longer until the U.S. economy is on the way to recovery.
This month investors were also asked about rising house prices and the recent 30
percent rise in stock prices and how this has impacted their spending behavior.
Just 18 percent of investors say they have or will increase their personal
spending because of rising stock prices, and 16 percent report they have or will
increase spending due to rising house prices. When asked whether rising stock or
house prices are more important for their own personal wealth, 65 percent of
investors say rising stock prices have a higher impact, compared with 27 percent
who cite rising house prices as more important.
Investors were additionally polled about which investment sectors currently
provide the most attractive investment opportunities. Among those surveyed
pharmaceutical companies ranked first, with 68 percent saying they provide an
excellent or very good investment opportunity. This is followed by biotechnology
companies, 57 percent; defense companies, 57 percent; technology companies, 52
percent; energy companies, 47 percent; health care companies, 46 percent;
telecommunications companies, 39 percent; utilities, 38 percent; Internet
companies, 32 percent; financial services companies, 29 percent; retail
companies, 22 percent; and transportation companies, 19 percent.
These findings are part of the 64th Index of Investor Optimism, which was
conducted from August 1 to August 14. To track and measure Index changes on an
ongoing basis, new samplings are taken monthly. Dennis J. Jacobe, research
director for Gallup, said the sampling included 803 investors randomly selected
from across the country. For this study, the American investor is defined as any
person who is head of a household or a spouse in any household with total
savings and investments of $10,000 or more. Nearly 40 percent of American
households have at least this amount of savings and investments. The sampling
error in the results is plus or minus three percentage points.
For more than 60 years, the Gallup Organization has been a recognized leader in
the measurement and analysis of people's attitudes, opinions and behavior. While
best known for the Gallup Poll, founded in 1935, Gallup's current activities
consist largely of providing marketing and management research, advisory
services and education to the world's largest corporations and institutions.
UBS is the world's leading wealth management business. In the US, it is the
third largest private client business with a client base of over 2 million
investors. Its American network of more than 8,200 financial advisors manages
roughly 600 billion Swiss francs in invested assets and provides sophisticated
services through consultative relationships with affluent and high net worth
clients. In Switzerland and internationally, UBS has more than 140 years of
private banking experience, an extensive global network of 164 offices and
almost 650 billion Swiss francs in invested assets. More than 3,200 client
advisors provide a comprehensive range of services customized for wealthy
individuals, ranging from asset management to estate planning and from corporate
finance to art banking.
Additional information about the Index of Investor Optimism can be found at
www.ubs.com/investoroptimism
OVERALL INDEX
03 August 61
03 July 54
03 June 77
03 May 42
03 April 66
03 March 5
03 February 9
03 January 38
02 December 52
02 November 41
02 October 29
02 September 60
02 August 52
02 July 46
02 June 72
02 May 90
02 April 89
02 March 121
02 February 92
02 January 115
01 December 88
01 November 84
01 October 86
01 September 50
01 August 76
01 July 74
01 June 85
01 May 90
01 April 81
01 March 82
01 February 77
01 January 96
00 December 106
00 November 130
00 October 132
00 September 147
00 August 160
00 July 143
00 June 149
00 May 155
00 April 140
00 March 150
00 February 168
00 January 178
99 December 174
99 November 148
99 October 139
99 September 160
99 August 149
99 July 166
99 June 146
99 May 163
99 April 168
99 March 151
99 February 167
98 December 141
98 September 147
98 June 160
98 March 161
97 December 151
97 September 151
97 June 152
97 February 128
96 November 125
96 October 124
SOURCE UBS AG
CONTACT: Karen Hess of UBS Americas, Media Relations, +1-212-713-8511
/Photo: newscom.com
URL: ubs.com
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