OFF TOPIC - CONCERNING MU
Hi Mark,
Yes, Mu is going full shifts, full capacity. Wafer outs are near
100% of capacity. Yes, it has been and is Mu strategy to layback
and playthe current generation for all its worth. However, Mu
announced a working 256 Meg!!! They shipped some of these to Dell
over a month ago. So Micron is not only The most efficient at
producing the current generation product, 16 Meg. They have made
it public that they are more than prepared for 64 Meg and Beyond.
Their Yields are World Class. Die per wafer and Fab yield are
excellent. They have two manufacturing facilities in Boise.
They have not had a yield crash, that I know of, for years.
Yes, Tyler Lowry leaving is a loss. Mu comments about this in
the paper were less than Respectful. They wished him well but
emphasized they have Many Engineers that can perform His job.
He was clearly Excellent at what he did. My guess is that he
trained other Excellent people and Mu truly wont miss him.
Good luck with your shorts. This is a difficult one to call.
Timing is key with shorts.The good news is that since I have not
started a short position yet, Mu will probably go down dramatically
without me and your timing will be validated.
Yes, Mu continued to produce 4 Meg well beyond the time Most other
companies had discontinued making 4 Meg. The main reason they are
selling more 16 meg now is that Samsung and others are shifting to
64 Meg.
The Huge difference this time around is the number of NEW DRAM
competitors. Yes, Texas Inst is getting out of DRAM business in
favor of DSP. However, There are a dozen new multi Billion $
fabs coming on line to produce DRAMS. What is happening inTaiwan
with all these New fabs is going to increase supply of 64 Meg considerably.
I have been wrong about Mu before. They split many times on the way
up thru 1993 - 1995. When they were crashing from 95 to 20 I told
many friends there would probably be several reverse splits.
So take all this info FWIW.
carpe diem
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