Commodities - The Coming Bull Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: maceng2 who wrote (1542)	8/26/2003 10:31:15 AM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (2) of 1643

U.S. durable goods orders rose 1% in July, in line with expectations and yet another sign that U.S. manufacturing is turning the corner. Orders in the prior month were revised up to a solid gain of +2.6% (from +2.3%). Orders in July excluding transportation were a robust +1.7%, after gains of 1.5% and 1% in the two prior months. Non-defense capital goods, a leading indicator of business investment, were up 1.2% in July (+0.4% ex-aircraft). One notable sector of strength in the month was the previously hard-hit communications equipment sector, which was up 11.8% m/m. Even with the rise in orders in recent months, companies are still cutting inventories to the bone. Durable goods inventories fell 0.9% last month after a 0.8% drop the prior month. As firms buy into the recovery story, we could see a big pop in industrial production in the months ahead as companies replenish depleted inventories. Bottom Line: There were no big surprises in this report, just further evidence that the recovery in factory activity continues to gradually gather momentum. The above is from B of Montreal economist. When inventories start to get rebuilt, this should be very good for base metals.

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