Hi Haim, <<Jay what is your take of Snow visit to China?>>
I think, and I am assuming and hoping that the likes of Snow is thinking, if they indeed do such chores, that they realize the folly of earlier pronouncements in the absence of consideration. To pressure China to revalue the Yuan by 5% is not helpful, by 10% is worse than useless, by 15% is not likely unless Asia+Japan does same, and even if so, a disaster back in the US, and by 20-30% is impossible.
If Snow does not backtrack and waffle, then bad events may happen directly, as in right away, even though they may happen eventually anyway.
Should the Yuan go up by say 10-15%, with or without Asia+Japan tagging along, that would mean inflation of goods in the US coupled with a nasty sell-down of US treasuries and agencies by every creditor central bank in Asia, a US credit crunch, and if credit crunch is offset by Greensputin deluge, a further sell-off of US paper, suggesting an imploded housing market, a splattered Federal, States, and private balance sheets, a parched corporate piggy bank (due to refinancing impossibility and worse-still domestic business conditions), and a general rise in servicing cost of debt in any case. Rising cost of debt will lead to more debt, as the inevitable math crosses over TPonRr.
After all that, TwoAPuc is set to go. US manufacturing will still not pick up, as Chinese coastal factories relocate inland to reduce labour cost by 30-50%, even as a strengthening Yuan will buy more raw materials at higher cost (in USD terms), and upgrade Chinese machine stock at lower cost (in Yuan terms) and China cranks up the printer to wash away its own debt-ly and social/banking sins, which then of course leads to a lower Yuan eventually, necessitating a lower dollar once again (isn't winning the cold war fun, leading to so much structural reforms, continuously, unrelentingly, and constructive destructively :0)
A revaluation of Yuan against the USD may be the trigger that sets off the US financial market clearing process, forcing global rebalance of wealth, and evening up of comparative GDP stats.
Can we see the outlines of TeoTwawKi, on the left of Abracadabra, to the right of NToeAwsB ?!
NToeAwsBe? As in buy Gold, straddle Gold shares, hold CAD, add Energy, accumulate other Resources, dabble in China/HK shares, and if you feel up to it, short Housing!
Chugs, Jay
TPonRr, pronounced T-Pon-Rrr, short for 'the point of no return';
TwoAPuc, pronounced Two-A-Puc, meaning 'the worst of all possible unintended outcomes';
TeoTwawKi, pronounced te-o-twaw-ki, easier to remember than 'The End Of The World As We Know It'
NToeAwsBe, pronounced N-Toe-Aws-Be, handy name for 'nature trade, obvious exchange, apparent wager and sure bet'.
Abracadabra, see Message 16212324 <<August 15th, 2001
Hi Maurice, <<roll back financial collapses!>> We have barely, and only just, held back the determined barbarian attacks by implementing the widely anticipated, least imaginative, most drastic, irresponsibly sustained, and fastest successive series of FED rate cuts ever in history. Still, the economy and the markets do not improve. In the meantime, the balance sheets of the nations, states, municipalities, corporations and individuals continue to deteriorate, with no end in sight and no bottom in view.
The final three-pronged attack is being prepared against the center with grim efficiency and murderous determination, aided by on-line credit application and off-rocker mentality that believe in the unbelievable. The defenders are conditioned to trust that (a) there will be a V-shaped recovery tomorrow, now that it is no longer yesterday; (b) trade deficit does not matter; (c) debt overload does no harm; and (d) Uncle Greenspankie and Sam will make matters OK.
The final attack could involve a shock troop attack softening down the Dollar or a serious Debt explosion deep within a nation, a corporation or a even a fund. The follow-on attacks will most likely involve the simultaneous Deflationary ‘cratering’ of the real estate funding bubble and the final bleeding of gushing hope from the quiescent population. The exact scenario does not even matter given the weakened state of the defending infrastructure and inadequate cash and FED rate ammunition supply.
Any brightening of hope in the interim is just a fatally toxic fantasy wrapped in shimmering hope tied with comforting propaganda presented on a platter of official deceit. Swallow the fantasy, financial suicide results.
Now, should the cataclysm be unobstructed, a new dawn may arrive sooner. We must lead the village idiots to the volcanic abyss of Inflation or the black hole of Deflation, to be sacrificed to the gods of work, thrift, family and savings. I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.
I could be wrong about everything, even about the fact that I was ever born, and in my saner moments, I hope I am wrong. I hope tomorrow is not The Day, and that all speculators will have an opportunity to seek redemption and change their ways towards the gods of work, thrift, family, and knowledge, and forsake the idol of effortless wealth.
You know humans as well as I do, if not better, and so you can guess at the odds of J6P awakening from his dream walk in time, before he falls down the steps in Uncle Al’s temple. Hey, how about that, you do know … the myth and the fantasy ...
… <<Green$pan … having reduced the irrationally exuberant back to the daily grind … is boring but more productive than millions … guzzling champagne>>
Again, save yourself before it is too late. It is not too late now, because we are not even done with the prologue of the script yet. Your exuberance is lighting up this dark den of ours, as we patiently wait for the BBQ grill to reach a good searing temperature :0)
Chugs, Jay |
