First Field poll I have seen on this issue. Doesn't bode well for it's passage. But this election is so crazy that I don't trust any polls on it about anything. Just too many variables.
Poll: Voters favor Proposition 54, but support slipping
By Beth Fouhy
ASSOCIATED PRESS
1:43 p.m., August 19, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO ? A controversial ballot initiative to bar the state from asking the race or national origin of anyone when collecting data about public education, contracting and employment is favored by a plurality of California voters but support appears to be slipping, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The nonpartisan Field Poll found Proposition 54, known by its backers as the "Racial Privacy Initiative," was supported by 46 percent of likely voters ? compared with 50 percent in July. Thirty-five percent said they opposed the measure, compared with 29 percent last month. Still undecided were 19 percent of respondents.
Proposition 54 will appear on the ballot Oct. 7, the same day as the special recall election against Gov. Gray Davis, and its fate may well hinge on which voters turn out for the recall. The poll found that those who say they definitely plan to vote to recall Davis support the measure by a 2-to-1 margin; supporters of Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is running as a Republican to replace Davis, favor it 3-to-1.
On the other hand, the poll found the measure could boost turnout among the state's ethnic minority voters, especially Hispanics, who oppose the measure by a margin of 50 percent to 38 percent. While just 17 percent of white voters said they are inclined to vote in the special election because of Proposition 54, fully 39 percent of Hispanic voters say the measure will make them more likely to vote.
"The most significant thing is the groups that are moving to the 'no' side," said Mark DiCamillo, the Field Poll's director. "Democrats have moved to the 'no' side, as have ethnic voters. Some of these people were going to be voting anyway, but it does bring some voters to the polls who wouldn't otherwise be there."
Proposition 54 has the backing of Ward Connerly, a University of California regent who successfully spearheaded the 1996 Proposition 209 campaign, which banned affirmative action programs in the state's public institutions. Connerly has argued the measure would bring the state closer to becoming a colorblind society.
Groups opposing Proposition 54 argue the measure would harm anti-discrimination efforts in law enforcement, education, public health and other areas.
Health advocates say it would deprive researchers of an important tool to spot disparities in the way diseases such as cancer and diabetes affect different ethnic groups, although the measure includes an exemption for racial data collected for medical purposes.
The poll data was collected in a telephone survey of 448 likely voters contacted between Aug. 10-13. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
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