I'm debating whether to accept the invitation.
Don't. As I think you know, I quit 11 years ago. Think I would be gone if I hadn't. This indication of intense Chinese interest in this conference is encouraging. I am sure they are afraid of what we might do, and they don't want us on their border. A "Big Stick" reputation in this kind of negotiation is helpful, IMO.
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[The New York Times]
August 27, 2003
China Takes Active Role in North Korea Nuclear Talks
By JOSEPH KAHN
BEIJING, Aug. 27 - Six nations opened talks here today on how to end North Korea's nuclear program, with China taking an unusually active role in trying to find common ground between the United States and North Korea, Chinese analysts say.
China, which is playing host to the three-day meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guest House, has begun pressing participants to agree on language for a multiparty declaration at the end of the talks that would provide a framework for future negotiations, said a foreign policy expert with close ties to China's Foreign Ministry.
"China does not expect that the talks will result in a major breakthrough," the analyst said. "But the Chinese side will clearly be disappointed if the main parties cannot at least agree to a declaration of principles. They feel it is essential to have a statement representing common goals."
Today the Chinese foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, was optimistic, success, Reuters reported.
"I heard talks this morning and this afternoon were very successful," Mr. Li told delegates to the talks during a reception at Diaoyutai, the news agency said.
A South Korean official said the North, in a separate discussion today with the United States described as "sideline talks," appeared "willing to resolve the nuclear issue through dialogue," The Associated Press reported.
But the official, Wie Sung Rak, director general of the North American Affairs Bureau of the foreign ministry in Seoul, offered no details.
In Moscow, the Tass news agency quoted Russia's negotiator at the talks, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, as saying North Korea would not let in nuclear inspectors without "legally binding" guarantees that it would not be attacked by the United States.
The role of China, which arranged the talks after extensive shuttle diplomacy, is viewed as essential to generating momentum in the discussion because the United States has hardened its position as the talks begin. Attempts to forge even a modest agreement on the direction of future talks could be fraught with difficulty.
A senior Bush administration official in Washington said Tuesday that the American negotiating team had been instructed not to commit to providing North Korea with diplomatic, political or economic incentives until Pyongyang "completely and verifiably" stopped developing nuclear weapons.
James Kelly, the assistant secretary of state who is heading the American delegation, may do little more than restate the American position that North Korea must unilaterally scrap its arms program before the two sides discuss in detail what sort of benefits it might get for doing so.
Some Bush administration officials had argued in favor of a more conciliatory approach, but they were overruled amid concerns that the United States should not reward the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, for his breach of a 1994 pact in which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear program, the official said.
Still, some local analysts say, China believes that the core positions of both the United States and North Korea are more flexible than they were a month ago, with the United States seen as prepared to offer a security guarantee and North Korea ready to commit publicly to giving up its weapons program. That could be the basis for a joint statement of intentions if the talks progress smoothly.
"It is not surprising that the two main parties are stating maximum negotiating positions at the outset," said Shi Yinhong, a leading foreign policy expert at People's University in Beijing. "But both sides had to step back in order to make these talks possible, and China clearly feels that over time more progress can be made."
Delegates from the United States, North Korea, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea sat today at a giant hexagonal table specially made for the talks.
The Chinese placed the American participants, headed by Mr. Kelly, side by side with the North Korean delegation, lead by Kim Yong Il, the deputy foreign minister. The Koreans wore badges depicting Kim Il Sung, the late "Great Leader" of the reclusive Communist state and the father of Kim Jong Il.
Diplomats involved in the discussion said the participants spent most the first day reading official statements about the crisis and outlining broad principles for the negotiations.
Shin Bong Kil, a spokesman for the South Korean delegation, said this afternoon that there were "no big deviations" from previously stated positions in the opening session.
During the past 25 years, China has focused mainly on developing its economy and resolving historical disputes over the status of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It has rarely sought to play an instrumental role in diplomatic issues regionally or internationally.
Beijing has also repeatedly rebuffed American entreaties to become more deeply engaged in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis. China argued that tensions between North Korea and the United States were a relic of the cold war that could only be resolved through one-on-one negotiations, and many Chinese experts expressed doubt that the North had the technology or the determination to deploy nuclear weapons.
But China's attitude shifted decisively in the spring. Chinese analysts say Beijing began accepting American intelligence that North Korea had already developed one or two atomic bombs. At a contentious three-party meeting that China played host to in April, North Korea said it was rapidly moving to build more.
Chinese officials also worried that the Bush administration, emboldened by a military victory in Iraq, was actively weighing the use of force on the Korean Peninsula, where China was dragged into war 50 years ago.
"The situation went from being one of many foreign policy problems to an urgent crisis that the top leadership decided to handle personally," Mr. Shi, the expert at People's University, said. "They certainly decided that China needed to play a more active role than or it could be faced with a national security disaster."
In the run-up to the talks, Mr. Shi and other analysts say, China carved out a position that it sees as dead center between North Korea and the United States. China is urging the United States to make a firm, detailed pledge that it has no intention of attacking North Korea, which it has identified as Pyongyang's bottom line. In return, China wants North Korea to take immediate steps to show that it is ready to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Wang Yi, a vice foreign minister who is China's representative at the talks, took the unusual step of publicly stating China's basic negotiating position as the talks got under way. Mr. Wang sought to portray China as an honest broker occupying, to the best of its estimates, the middle ground between the two main antagonists.
"We have paid attention to heeding the views of every side, especially North Korea and the United States, looking for points of commonality and taking on board the reasonable aspects of every side," Wang said.
nytimes.com |
