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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.14+0.4%4:00 PM EST
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To: Sam Citron who wrote (11278)8/27/2003 4:37:18 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95632
 
RE: "Tech at the moment seems somewhat pricey...the current upsurge collapses."

1. "Pricey" is the correct state at the end of a long economic down turn and the beginning of an up turn.

2. If it is indeed "the end of a long economic down turn and the beginning of an up turn", the "current upsurge" will go on for far longer than most expect and will not "collapse" until very few believe a collapse possible.

3. Many of the important trends in tech that I have been talking about are showing signs of making important progress. One surprising sign occurred in a MSFT TV commercial. If I remember correctly, the advertised product was called "LiveMeeting" and, from the short copy of the commercial, I gathered that MSFT will be in the center of seamlessly integrating the real and "virtual". For the first time in my life, the idea of investing in MSFT has become a consideration. Any feedback on the product is very welcome.

4. The economy and, consequently, the market are very strongly driven by fiscal and monetary stimuli that can't be maintained at these levels if stability is the long term objetive. In the short and intermediate term, I expect pretty good success, but I believe that it will not be too long before we will need to be very wary. At that time, things will look better than now and longs will have bigger stock portfolios to leverage gains or produce losses.
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