Can you make any conclusions based on this put/call chart?
stockcharts.com[w,a]mallyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb5!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Based on this chart of BPCOMPQ, it sure looks like mid-May 2002 and mid-January 2003.
stockcharts.com[d,a]dhclnnay[de][pc20][iLe12,26,9]&pref=G
I was curious what happened over the next 1-2 months in both of those times, just for kicks.
On May 15, 2002, the Dow was 10,244. It reached 10400 2 days later, then broke under 10000 by May 28. By June 15, it was at 9500, By July 15, 8600. By Aug 15, 8800 (having gone as low as 7500 in between).
(I'm sure the Nasdaq tracked this, so I'm not looking at data).
On Jan 16, the DJI was at 8700. By Jan 31 and Feb 14, it was at 8000. By March 14, it was 7860, but had gone as low as 7500.
So if we can read the chart and follow the PPO and guess that it repeats. I'd say 8500 is likely, and maybe even 8100.
Consider the rally from March to August is 7500 to 9500. A 50% retracement would be 8500.
Ketan |
