Consumer Electronics in for Bumpy Ride: iSuppli
Online Staff -- Electronic News, 8/26/2003
The consumer electronics market will not have a banner 2003, but 2004 could bring growing markets, along with shortages and supply chain disruptions, says iSuppli.
"A few consumer electronics products are beginning to ignite the interest of the buying public," Jay Srivatsa, an iSuppli principal analyst, stated in a recent research report. "DVD Players and digital cameras, and to a lesser extent digital TVs and set top boxes, are proving to be small bright spots in an otherwise dim consumer market in 2003, he said.
But if consumer confidence and global economic factors remain steady heading into Christmas, 2004 and the ensuing years could see these products boom. Worldwide system revenue for consumer electronics will grow from $225 million in 2003 to 274 million, while semiconductor revenues will grow from $40 billion to $54 billion in that time frame, iSuppli predicts.
The major driver for growth in 2003 will be digital still cameras, while in the ensuing years DVD recorders and digital TV sets will drive the market, Srivatsa said. But these markets could be hampered by shortages, with an industry that's been reluctant to add capacity.
Right now there is a shortage of lenses, displays and CCD sensors that could affect overall sales of digital still cameras this year, although this will be alleviated somewhat by the switch to CMOS image sensors, iSuppli suggested. As for DVD recorders, that market has already begun to suffer from shortages of certain components, particularly optical pickup units.
"DVD recorder OEMs should secure commitments from their suppliers to prepare for the steep increase in sales of DVD recorders," Srivatsa said. "DTV set OEMs will face similar shortages if they do not plan for the rising popularity of DTV sets."
The market itself may also become disrupted, not just by shortages, but by Taiwan and China playing on both sides of the fence.
"Taiwanese ODMs and Chinese OEMs, possibly the greatest threat to Japanese OEMs, are playing dual roles in the emerging market for digital still cameras, DVD recorders, and DTV sets," Srivatsa reported. "Some of them are designing and manufacturing products for major OEM labels as well as designing and manufacturing under their own brands," he said. |
