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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: yard_man who wrote (257833)	8/28/2003 5:07:14 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (2) of 436258

In the price history of Palladium, the spike begins with December 1998, when Russia (the main & pretty much the only supplier of Palladium aside from South Africa) restricted the exports of PGM to specially authorized "State Organs", making the metal almost unobtainable. Hence the spike from USD 300/oz to USD 1,100/oz... Consumers started switching to Platinum as a substitute, and so we see the drop in the price of Palladium below USD 400/oz again. From what I gathered looking around since yesterday, it seems Russian shipments were down about 60% last year (don't know what the situation is this year) and that Russia is moving to liberalize the PGM industry - none of which sounds bullish for Palladium prices. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that Palladium prices went up to those levels because of a singular, very important event - a serious supply squeeze - and then came down because of substitution. Frankly, I would be very suprised if it went up to anywhere near those peaks without an equally shocking supply disturbance or a new (huge) use discovered for Platinum.

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