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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: russwinter who wrote (18562)8/29/2003 8:41:03 AM
From: austrieconomist  Read Replies (5) of 39344
 
MZM growth rate at 17.5% for two months is still indicative of Fed monetization activity.

research.stlouisfed.org

At his stage I am leaning far more in the direction of gold supply/demand fundamentals than technicals for investment guidance. I think the facilitation of the means to gold ownership should not be underestimated: proliferation of gold ETFs on all world exchanges, liberalization of gold ownership and trading in China, shift of economic power to SE Asia where investors have existing proclivity for gold. And this changing fundamental is not a pie and the sky future projection but is in motion. The loss of the investment alternative of the U.S. equity market is also a certainty: timing here is much more difficult. Certainly within a year. I do think that the catalyst here has sprung -- the withdrawal of dollars available to consumers by cash out mortgage financings, now down almost 70% from May peak. How long does it take for that to seep into the economy? My guess about six months, since that is the earliest impact on any economic statistic of a change in MZM.

Russ, I think your BCA DBA chart is from a subscription. It would be a great service if that chart could be posted on this thread every month or so. My estimation is that it is a great "coincident indicator".
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