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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: austrieconomist who wrote (18597)8/29/2003 9:47:57 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
Actually the BCA chart can be pulled from their site, the link is provided at the Epic Credit Bubble thread in my intro. That MZM growth just doesn't look sustainable, but the question is, does one anticipate it turning down or wait for it to turn down. I think the feedback will be rapid when it does.

<My guess about six months, since that is the earliest impact on any economic statistic of a change in MZM.>

I've looked over the history of this and I think it's a quarter not six months. That would take us through about the third quarter. This one will have a fast feedback into the employment market become of mortgage industry cutbacks (as Bensen mentioned in his piece) and start showing up about now in the numbers.

<facilitation of the means to gold ownership should not be underestimated>

A good point, as I do think the Chinese are probably driving this market (and energy, and food, and..) now more than is generally appreciated. Still this can be new era thinking that one needs to be careful of. New era thinking always looks for the greater fool, and once that mentality takes hold the game is really up. Also strong POG in itself will be a feedback to the markets (and Cs) that too much excess liquidity has been provided.
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