JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up?

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To: borb who wrote (3458)	8/29/2003 2:27:08 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) of 3902

Borb, usually the volatility associated with September-Oktober is associated with disappointed financial expectations wrt. company annual statements. In addition to this come some special factors.. But the time usually conincides with "earnings warning" season for the entire year statements for many US companies.. Another effect is taxloss selling. If you look at the pattern, while it is true that Sept-Oktober OFTEN features higher volatility than the rest of the months' trading, the effect cannot be observed in every year. For about 2-3 quarters now, company financials do not disappint anymore in the US and if expectations are not met it's usually because of upside surprise (same in Japan recently - talk about the effects of 0.5% industrial production pickup MONTH ON MONTH announced yesterday in a MITI report - whew !). This is not an environment for a fall stock plunge. Certainly not. I predict smooth sailing ahead until March of 2004 (in the US) - in Japan probably until July 2004 rgrds CROSSY

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