The thing that frosts me is this (and I knew this was going to happen, just wasn't ready for how pissed off it would make me).
The skills that you needed to survive the bear market (as a trader with no other income) are not only worthless in a cycle like this - they're a liability. It's almost if you're being mocked by the clown population for implementing risk control, being skeptical (gee, has everyone forgotten Global Crossing, Worldcom, Microstrategy and Imclone?). You're supposed to blithely accept that suddenly everything's rosy again, all non-manufactured evidence to the contrary.
As I've said before, one of my investors is a bankruptcy trustee. I see what's his office. He does 2-3 SETS (120 each set) or so 341 meetings every month. And he's only one of seven trustees in his district. He also does debtor work and is overwhelmed.
But we're supposed to believe this is a great economy and the "consumer" is fine, great, dandy . . . pounding out those tax checks at Walmart or whatever. That's not what I see or what he sees. The home foreclosure rates around here are unbelieveable. Nobody has any equity anymore. They're just walking away.
I don't buy any of it and I've been afraid to be long for more than intraday stuff since mid - July. The clowns have had a field day, I know that. It's just something I have to accept while it lasts. That doesn't make it any less annoying to watch. If I see one more idiot on a Yahoo board talking about "weak hands" or "market makers trying to get cheap shares," I may hurl on my desk.
Oh, and as an aside, my biggest winners this summer were Dow and QQQ puts covered at 1180 NDX when we had that minor correction. Doubles. Also, a ten bagger on HMY August 12.5 calls brought to my attention by Tippet when the stock was in the 10s. I'll take those every day over risking my neck on SOHU or whatever the flavor of the month for the clown set is. |
