<Font size=5>Preempting the preemptors <Font size=3>
Neo-cons
The very word preempt implies foresight. As anyone who has dealt with the market knows, foresight is an attribute to be treasured. Many claim the quality, few deliver. Those that have read the reports and articles of the neo-cons know that they believe in preemptive war. With the shock of 9-11, they have gotten their doctrine of preemption written into law as the National Security Strategy.
fpif.org
For the moment let’s ignore the moral, and just consider the pragmatic. For preemptive war to work, you must be able to predict what will occur if you don’t act and if you do. This requires intelligence –both intelligence as information, and as in being smart. So far the neo-con record, on either definition, is abysmal. Surely, as Wolfowitz said, the Admin concentrated on WMDs to “sell” the war to the American public. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t think the WMDs were there. With the conviction that only an ideologue can have, they “knew” the WMDs were there. Similarly, they “knew” that once we invaded, we would be welcomed with “flowers” They “knew” that with Iraq’s vast oil wealth, Iraq would be a lucrative prize. They "knew" that the oil wealth would more than pay for the occupation, because all they had to do was decapitate the Baath regime, and replace it with an American “transplant”. They “knew” that with Iraq mimicking the US, they could project their will throughout the ME. Recalcitrant states like Syria and Iran would become compliant. Puppet states like Egypt and Jordan would emulate Iraq and mimic the US. Saudi Arabia would be transformed. And the Palestinians would be cowed into accepting dictat terms.
Events subsequent to the invasion have glaringly exhibited the strength of the predictive powers of the neo-cons. The current investigation into what went wrong with the pre-war intelligence (information variety) leads directly to the conclusion that the neo-cons were ”snookered” by Chalbi’s group. This should raise red flags about the neo-cons’ intelligence (smarts variety).
Al Qaeda
Now I have no way of knowing whether Al Qaeda planners read PNAC plans on the internet, but given their thoroughness, it would surprise me if they didn’t. Since their goal was a “war of civilizations”, and if they knew that the neo-cons were “itching” to invade Iraq, what better way to achieve their goal than provoke the attack. Success. They provoked, America attacked, jihad declared.
theage.com.au
Round one to Osama.
Contrary to neo-con propaganda, there is scant evidence of OBL operating in Iraq prior to America’s invasion. So it takes a while for them to get organized in Iraq after the invasion. Using the Bush carrier strut as a time hack, Al Qaeda (and friends) spent about a quarter (May through July) preparing – a trait the neo-cons should emulate. Correctly perceiving that contrary to the neo-cons “go it alone” belief, the only way the CPA could have even a chance of victory was with help from others. It is quite telling that the neo-cons’ adversaries realized this before they did. To preclude that option, their first targets were those collaborating with the occupiers – foreign puppet governments (Jordan), western sympathizers (U.N.) and local quislings (Governing Council supporters - Ayatollah al-Hakim). This effectively preempted the only “exit strategy” from the Tar Baby the neo-cons had - before they realized they needed one.
Iraqi police have arrested four men in connection with the bombing of Iraq’s most holy Shiite Muslim shrine, and all four have connections to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida terror network...
from
msnbc.com
Round two to Osama.
JMO
lurqer |
