Russ, I'm a bit surprised that you, focused as I am on LT cap gains rates, don't replace large blocks of appreciated and sold stocks with smaller dollar (maybe larger share) blocks of microcaps. Maybe you are but are too responsible to mention rank speculations here.
Of course, it doesn't make sense to take junior gold stock profits and keep/buy gold microcaps now unless you think (1) there's on ongoing bull market in gold and all we'll see are retrenchments or cyclical mini-bears within it; and (2) there exist microcaps with prospects or outright blue sky worth the speculation at today's prices.
My answer is yes to those conditions. I take it you may not be willing to be on #1:
<see a longer term and higher bull rise down the road in the next 2-3 years?>
I'm open to that prospect (that this will be a big correction) within a bull market, but that's to be evaluated when the time comes, not especially now.
As to #2, I recognize the specs available two years ago were much more advanced in their drilling or property acquisition, and compelling as buys on a risk/reward basis, than what's there now. I'm willing to take more chances on microcaps now than before because it occurs in the context of cashing in profits on appreciated positions and limiting my potential "give-back," and I'm betting against level of fiscal/monetary responsibility of the U.S. and other gov'ts. That bet is better now than it's ever been, but I still recognize gov'ts can keep the balls in the air for much longer than many would think possible.
BTW, great advice about why to lighten recently:
I can say that I feel it will end abruptly for all these markets, and turn on a dime. And then there won't be any bids. Bulls will get caught looking for upticks back towards the highs to sell, but there won't be any of significance. Since I've held large PM positions, I would rather be selling into the bids, rather than hoping for bids on the downslope of the parabolic.
I've ridden that downslope, I prefer skis and snow! |
