I know I'm stepping on toes here, especially if I'm wrong about this call. PMs are religion for many on this thread. And if I'm right? I'm still stepping on toes. So I'm making this call recognizing that it's a no win situation for me, and I won't win any popularity contests from it. I'm not trying to convince true believers, but, at least everybody can consider the bearish argument right now. And it's true: I have the luxury of some lopsided and large gains in the sector over the three years that I would like to keep. BTW, I'm selling the majority of my holdings, but not all. Do I think the HUI move is over this week at 195? Probably not, a spike is a distinct possibility, but the risks now are high.
I have no quarrel with Richard Russell's work either. I do however, find his calling a market that has advanced 500% in less than three years, a "new", or "the beginning of" a bull market, sort of fuzzy thinking. There's nothing new or fresh about this PM bull market. The only question is the next phase of it, as you can lose 30% in the sector in a hurry, even in bull market corrections. That's especially true in the high beta HUI like stocks. On the question of broad public participation, you have to remember that this market suffered from a severe bubble in 96-97 and the Bre-X bust. So you may NEVER see those players back into this market. |
