Russ:
Speaking for myself you are not stepping on toes. I think it is important that we share our views and our knowledge for the benefit of all and let each person develop their own strategy.
I did want to comment on this:
"On the question of broad public participation, you have to remember that this market suffered from a severe bubble in 96-97 and the Bre-X bust. So you may NEVER see those players back into this market."
The market is driven by fear and greed and if gold continues its bull, and you know where I stand there, eventually the public will be sucked in and that will be the first warning sign. I have related this story before on the thread but I think it worth repeating.
In the seventies, my wife had I had (still have for that matter) four very good friends. I remember telling them at dinner one night that I had paid $1.10 for $1.00 worth of silver coins, which at the time could still be found in change occassionaly. I also informed them that I was buying gold. They laughed at me and jokingly reached in their pockets and purses and offered me their money at 110%. However years later when silver was $35.00 and ounce and gold around 600-700 and I announced that I had sold at dinner one night, they chastised me, and told me I was crazy. I don't know if you are old enough to remember the top in that crazy market, but a lot of people got sucked in near the top. Gold and silver prices were readily available in newspapers and the price was quoted almost daily on the evening news. (They did not have many financial news shows in those days)
Many people got caught holding the bag, including a friend of mine who bought silver on margin and lost his booty. Yet having been through that we subsequently had a Bre-x. I also recall that stocks were in such disfavor in 1982 that some very good stocks were selling at 2 to 3 times earnings, below book and yielding 15% and no one wanted them. Yet look what happened. It does take a while for the mania to develope in most cases, it hasn't yet, but it will. We will see bonds yielding 15% or more and stocks so cheap you would think they were on fire sale and the price of gold in the paper every day and on the news and people who never invested in anything in their life but CD's will be buying gold and then we need to stop worrying about the top. At least that is the way I see it.
God, I hope, I am not wrong. I may not be able to show my face here again. :)
Little joe |
