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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (80290)8/31/2003 11:05:10 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
True I think that the USD is overvalued by more than a few % points. The problem are with the countries who peg their currency to the USD and use their trade surplus to buy US assets to promote economic prosperity at home.

IMHO there is competitive devaluation of the major currencies starting with Japan.

BTW in my previous post I did not mention the interest rate differential which IMHO is more related to the 5 or 10 years debentures of each country and the relative inflation expectation.

For what it is worth as long as Asian exporters are satisfied holding US debt if treasury or agency debt there is little chance for the UDS achieve real value which should be around 10% to 15% lower. (at that price jobs may return to the US and the trade deficit will shrink)

My estimation of 92 to 94 was based on some flexibility from Asia and did not represent what I think fair value of the USD
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