Using the Military to Promote Democracy
A strangely titled article… it’s not clear whether he’s suggesting that the Philippine military can be used to promote democracy there, or if he means the US military. Either way, he gives no clear idea of how he thinks the promotion should be done.
The problem with Philippine democracy is pretty clear, and has reached a very critical state. I can sum it up in one sentence: the traditional prerogatives of power in the Philippines are fundamentally incompatible with either working democracy or economic development.
As long as people who hold power, whether military, financial, political, or any combination of the above, are above the law and free to use public power for personal advantage, democracy will be a sham and the economy will be a farce. The democratic institutions, relatively free press, and active civil society don’t change this equation, and I can’t see how the military can change it either, especially since they are among the worst offenders.
The suggestion to defer the Bush visit is not, I think, a terribly good one. I’d like to see Bush use the visit to put the issues on the table in a very open and not terribly diplomatic fashion. A lot of people would be furious, but it needs to be done. I also think it should be made clear – in statements addressed to the populace, not the politicians – that if the military and the politicians make the needed reforms, large amounts of aid will be forthcoming, but that we won’t toss money down a toilet, or into anybody’s BVI account. I’d like to see some straightforward acknowledgement of and apology for previous mistakes as well, though I know this will never happen. There is a huge constituency for progressive change in the Philippines, but they have no effective leadership. Unfortunately, a lot of the people who want democracy and free markets are extremely suspicious of American methods and motives. This is a direct hangover from the years of support for Marcos (a small thing to us, but today’s politically aware Filipinos came of age in those years, and it was no small thing to them) and the excesses of the structural adjustment era. I’d love to see America start reaching out to this generation, which represents the main hope of avoiding a slide into failed statehood. That’s a real threat, and it wouldn’t do anybody any good.
Meanwhile, I’m a little worried about the potential for terrorist action during the APEC conference in Bangkok in October. Bush will be there, and so will many other heavyweights. It is not inherently significant that they caught Hambali there: Bangkok has always been a favored meeting place and playground for that crowd (the girls may not be virgins, but you don’t have to die to enjoy them). It is suggestive, though, and it’s an awfully tempting target for a terrorist. Security will be tight, but hiding in Bangkok is not difficult, and the borders are wide open.
We’ll see. I hope they watch the regional airlines. Security in airports in that area is generally not great, and a 9/11-style attack is entirely possible. The method would probably be to try and hijack an inbound jet from a low-security location – outbound security will be tight – at the last possible moment, and try to crash it into the venue before anyone can respond. Even if such an attempt were shot down, the mess would be huge.
I hope I’m wrong. I’m not calling that a prediction, but it’s a worry for sure. |
