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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (18921)	9/1/2003 12:37:15 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) of 39344

LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF THE HUI COMPONENT STOCKS. I have been spending a lot of time reviewing my portfolio and in particular pondering where the HUI is like to go. Many of the posts have dealt with the short term which is natural, but I have reviewed the long term charts of each stock, for a different perspective. I have previously posted a short term perspective. The stocks are posted in order of their weighting in the index with the highest being first. I have included all data available from Big Charts and some of the stocks go back to the 70’s. I assume that those that do not go back that far started trading after the 70’s and the few that have no long term chart I am sure have only recently been trading. Here goes: Newmont bigcharts.marketwatch.com Although it traded during the great bull market of the 1970’s and early 1980’s and made a high on that move of just over 30. Its all time high was at 80+ in 1988. It is currently trading at half its all time high. There is an obvious H&S bottom that formed in the late 1990’s early 2000’s which broke out recently at about 35. This projects to 50. It is up slant type H&S which is strongest and the rising volume from the left shoulder through the head and into the left shoulder is classic. Also notice the strong resistance area just before the top at 60 between 30ish and 45ish. I see no reason why this stock should not at least achieve its H&S objective of 50 and if it does it will likely go to the top it made at 60 in the mid 1990’s. Bottom line is long term it is healthy and not overbought. Glamis (GLG) bigcharts.marketwatch.com This is a stock that did not trade in the 1970’s bull. It started to trade in the early 1980’s. It made a high at Ten in the mid 1990’s. and has well exceeded that high as it now trades over 14. The move even on the long term chart has gone vertical but as you can see it tends to spurt and then consolidate. It may be ready for more consolidation now. I am unable to measure a target but I like the chart. Gold Fields (GFI) bigcharts.marketwatch.com All time high made in the mid to late 1980’s did not do well in the bull of the mid 1990’s relative to its prior high. It is now consolidating just under the 15 area which was the top in the mid 1990’s. It is not overbought, but I consider it one of the laggards of the index. Freeport McMoran (FCX) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Chart doesn’t go back very far but like GFI it is not particularly appealing. It also needs to overcome substantial resistance in the 30 to 25 area. Although this is old resistance it could be an obstacle. Couer d’alene (CDE) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Here is a chart that looks way overbought short term, but the long term potential is incredible. This one could be at 10 pretty fast as it breaks out of its bottom. See the following link for a good analysis: gold-eagle.com Bema Gold (BGO) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Another one that looks overextended on the short term chart but could easily move to the 8-10 area pretty quickly in my mind. Maund has also analyzed this one. See the following: gold-eagle.com Hecla (HL) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Lots of overhead resistance, but a good saucer bottom and cup and handle break out. However the stock is clearly not overbought. Golden Star (GSS) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Another laggard with a good rounding bottom that could get going if it clears 5 on good volume. Again way off its highs of 20 and definitely not overbought. Randgold (GOLD) NO LONG TERM Agnico Eagle (AEM) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Seems to be working hard to clear resistance at 20 and then it is clear sailing to 35. I think a lot of the weakness has to do with the mine accident which substantially impaired production. I do not know the status of repairs. I am not too wild about the chart. Meridian Gold (MDG) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Failed to hold its breakout to highs and appears to have topped I would not buy this one at all. Iamgold (IAG) No long term chart Kinross (KGC) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Not a wonderful chart need to clear a lot of resistance. It is a long term laggard and doesn’t do much for me. Goldcorp (GG) bigcharts.marketwatch.com My favorite long term chart. Really strong and looks like it wants to run. Obviously needs to clear 14 to get moving again but has well exceeded its all time high during this bull. Harmony (HMY) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Could be a great trade if you can get it under 12. But I don’t like the strong sell off after making new highs. Well it is obvious that the HUI is not a monolith and that there are stocks which are making new all time highs and stocks which are still near their lows as well as stocks which project higher. However my read of the situation is that tHIS IS NOT A LONG TERM OVERBOUGHT MARKET. From a long term perspective it doesn’t even look like it needs a correction. The short term says otherwise and the liklihood is that we will see a short term correction soon. I reiterate that correction will help us to assess the overall health of the gold stocks, but so far I do not see any reason to believe that we are at the top. Live long and prosper, Little joe

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