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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 348.51+5.3%Feb 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: StanX Long who wrote (11335)9/1/2003 1:20:15 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95888
 
RE: "New Bubble"

1. It is rational to invest in former leaders at very low relative prices when a significant economic recovery is at hand.

2. The volatility about the bottom was driven by momentum to the downside and is driven by momentum to the upside.

3. Since bubble conditions are not yet in place, it is prudent to expect that sooner or later price movements will more closely reflect business results and tangible indicators of future business prospects such as orders, fab capacity utilization, and movement of chip ASPs.

4. Investors should move from stocks that have been driven solely by momentum to stocks that have demonstrated either likely cyclical growth with leverage or likely long term growth. Take profits and move to quality as the recovery unfolds.
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