Steve- Iraq is not a Left Right issue. It's a Competent Incompetent issue.
Musa Keilani is editor in chief of Jordan's Al-Urdon newspaper, knows the territory and writes:
Slipping deeper into the abyss
SOUTHERN IRAQ has been relatively quiet since the war that toppled Saddam Hussein, as the dominant Shiites of that region tried to come to terms with the new realities of the country. Friday's massive bomb explosion shattered the calm and signalled an alarming turn of events there, in that it heralds a cycle of violence among the Shiites.
At this point, it is not clear who was behind the bomb blast that killed 85 people, among them Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir Al Hakim, who had been calling for Iraqi unity and patience with the US occupation of the country. Speculation is that the bombing was part of a power struggle within the community.
No matter who was behind the blast, the event has thrown a big spanner into the works of the US, which is frantically trying to pacify the people of Iraq. The US grossly miscalculated the streak of violence in Iraqi society, True, American strategists might have taken note of the history of violence and bloodshed in the country and the perpetual state of tension and confrontation there, but they went wrong when they expected the people of Iraq to stay put and remain forever grateful to Washington for ending the tyrannical regime of Saddam Hussein.
That is the fundamental lesson the Bush administration should learn from Friday's bombing in Najaf and the blast at the UN headquarters in Baghdad in mid-August. Shocking as it might have been to many around the world, the bombings should not have come as a surprise, since the natural course of events in Iraq dictated such attacks.
It is the very nature of Iraqi society that produced a ruthless and iron-fisted Saddam Hussein as its ruler. Had Saddam been soft, he would not have survived in power and the Iraqis themselves understood it more than anyone else. Whatever perspective one adopts to review the situation in Iraq, it is increasingly becoming clear that the US has got itself in a quagmire. Notwithstanding the brave face put up by US President George W Bush and his aides and their vows to stay the course in Iraq, the reality is that the US has not been able to contain the situation in post-war Iraq and it will never be able to do so either.
On the one hand, American forces in Iraq are facing mounting resistance attacks and are unable to pinpoint the sources. There could be a multitude of groups behind the attacks, including Saddam loyalists. There is no way the US can hope to gain the upper hand against them since the undercurrents at play in Iraq are too complex. On the other hand, the US faces the difficult task of endearing itself to the people of Iraq, given the deteriorating living conditions in the country.
For all technical purposes, the US claims that things are slowly returning to normal in the country, but in reality the Iraqis are worse off now than they were under the Saddam reign, in terms of water, food, power, jobs, safety and security. At this juncture, Washington is repeating its pledge that it will not be driven out of Iraq, but that is a facade. As every day passes, the intensity of hostility towards the US is growing among the Iraqis, if only because the occupation forces are unable to offer them the minimum requirements for life. That is the biggest hurdle the US is facing and it is unlikely that it will have any success.
Definitely, the US did not expect this kind of situation developing in Iraq and was not prepared for it, and now it is too late to correct itself and focus more on ensuring that the minimum needs of the Iraqis are met — that effort would need closer interaction between the Americans occupiers and the Iraqis, which means exposing the American to higher security risks. Washington might not want to admit it, but it is slipping into an abyss in Iraq. The world is watching this but the Bush administration does not want to acknowledge it. It is urgently searching for a solution, and wants the cover of the UN so that the risks are shared by other countries. Obviously, few want anything to do with Iraq, including those countries which are coming under immense pressure to contribute troops to work under American command, with or without the fig leaf of a UN resolution. However, soldiers from any country joining the US occupation of Iraq become an immediate target since there is no reasoning that could make them be seen as benefactors. It should not be a surprise if any of the foreign non-US military units already in Iraq is targeted for a massive attack, if only with a view to send a message to other countries not to enter the Iraq imbroglio.
The only honourable option available to the US is to engage the UN fully in the process and hand over charge to the world body to run Iraq and rebuild the country as well as bring about institutionalised democracy. But the US will not do that if only because of the ensuing loss of face as well as the unfinished business of creating an Iraq that is conducive to American and Israeli strategic interests.
No doubt there will be more explosions like the Najaf blast and there will be more deadly attacks against American and foreign forces in Iraq in the days and weeks ahead, forcing the US, at some point, to admit that it is unable to handle the country. The question is: How long and what would it take for the US to do so?
Sunday, August 31, 2003
jordantimes.com
Harvey |
