Peter, you and I both buy and hold, mainly energy trusts, accumulating on weakness, or averaging down, however we like to put it. My first post on this board supported your contention that unrealised losses were not the same as losing money. We only differ in your belief that some mathematical analysis of past, sometimes long past, unit price behavior has predictive value, where I just don't think so. Too many things change, like acquisitions, mergers, hedges, commodity prices, drilling success, management, sentiment and so on.
----- But the things you mentioned have always changed. They changed for the trusts 10 years ago and they change for the trust today and they will change for the trusts 10 years from now. Further to that if one just goes to the annual reports they change yearly. Always have and always will. Is it your contention then that acquistions are a new phenomenon for the trust? I have the past trust data to show trusts made acquistions in the past. From past annual reports. Thats long past and recent past. The same holds for each of the other points you mention. Mergers, commodity prices , hedging and whatever else you want to throw into the discussion. JUST CHECK PAST ANNUAL REPORTS FOR THE CONFIRMATION. ITS ALL THERE. -------
You are of course entitled to your belief, but I don't happen to share it.
----- You need not beleive it. But the facts from the annual reports as I said confirm it all. Ignore it if you wish. Others dont. Because no one should ignore any information. Doing so can have dire consequences as some have found out. Example of which. PMT.UN in its prospectus said that in past years it had experienced some shutins of its production by the Alberta government when it was not a trust. It also said that there may be a chance of some of the same in the future. Many chose to ignore that and got burnt. ------
I am also entitled to give reasons why I disagree.
---- The reasons you gave above is because things change. Not much of a reason. I put forward the info found in the past annual reports that all may see. That those things changed in the past as well. Its nothing new. That has not made my strat wrong. My strat worked recent past it worked further past. The numbers and events prove that. Unit prices going from lows to highs then back to lows again over and over again like clockwork. Year after year after year. And they did that with all changes, changes in commodity prices, changes in hedging, changes in production, etc etc . If you can prove otherwise with references or data of your own please do so. It will benefit everyone. Which is what we are trying to do. -------- |
