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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.10

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Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83921)	9/1/2003 7:30:29 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (4) of 99985

Still 50% long. My model is up 10.8% so far this year vs the qqq which is up 37%. Not very good so far, but still four months to go. Hopefully I'll at least hit my minimum of 20%+ annually even if I don't exceed the qqq this year. Despite the poor relative performance this year, since I've been posting model results starting 1/1/2002, the model is up 46% vs -16% for the qqq. The qqq was down 38% in 2002 and is up 37% this year, yet overall is down 16%.......this is a good example of the math showing why it more important to avoid losses than to catch every possible gain. (at least that's what I'm trying to tell myself since I'm underperforming so badly this year!) Tom

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