For Calif. GOP, It's Principles vs. Potential
Republicans May Look Past Weaker Conservative Credentials in Hopes of a Win
State Sen. Tom McClintock may lose the votes of California Republicans who want to ensure Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante doesn't win the recall election. (Paul Sakuma -- AP)
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, September 1, 2003; Page A04
LOS ANGELES, Aug. 31 -- State Assemblyman Ray Haynes is one of the most conservative members of the California legislature, but when he looks at the stakes involved in next month's recall election here, the choice is clear. He's for a Republican who can win.
Like many conservatives in this state, Haynes admits to being torn between head and heart. His heart is with a friend from the trenches, state Sen. Tom McClintock, whose conservative credentials are unimpeachable. His head tells him that McClintock probably cannot win and that actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose conservative credentials are decidedly mixed, probably can.
"I'll be real blunt," Haynes said in an interview. "I was involved in the recall with Tom McClintock from the beginning, but I didn't get involved in this to hand the governorship over to [Democratic Lt. Gov.] Cruz Bustamante. That's something I need to be cognizant of and other conservatives need to be cognizant of."
The battle among Republican candidates for the endorsements of politicians such as Haynes -- and for the support of rank-and-file conservative voters and constituency groups -- represents one of the most intriguing and potentially significant subplots in the political melodrama that is the California recall.
On Oct. 7, voters here will be asked to decide whether Gov. Gray Davis (D) should be removed from office and who should replace him if he is. Bustamante is the only prominent Democrat on that second ballot, but there are three notable Republicans: Schwarzenegger, McClintock and businessman Peter Ueberroth.
To conservatives, whose energy fueled the effort to put the recall question to a vote, Schwarzenegger is no Ronald Reagan. They view his claims to conservatism as suspect, given his support of abortion rights and gay rights and his lack of specificity about tax and fiscal issues.
Already conservatives have seen two of their own -- Rep. Darrell Issa, who bankrolled the recall petition drive, and Bill Simon, the businessman who narrowly lost to Davis in November -- quit the race. They now face an unhappy choice: support a candidate in Schwarzenegger who is anything but a true believer or stick to principles, back McClintock and risk being blamed if Republicans lose the governor's office once again.
"They're very confused," former state GOP chairman John Herrington said of party conservatives. "They want to win. They're tired of backing losers."
Schwarzenegger's advisers know that, for all his potential appeal outside the GOP, the road to power in Sacramento must begin in conservative territory. In essence, the novice candidate is being forced to win a de facto Republican primary before he can shift his focus to reaching beyond the GOP's base. He has made some progress, but he faces a stubborn adversary in McClintock, who got more votes than any other Republican on the ballot here in 2002 when he narrowly lost the election for state controller.
Schwarzenegger enjoys the support of several conservatives in the California House delegation and won the backing of 20 of 32 GOP members of the state Assembly. On Thursday, he was endorsed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the group behind the 1978 anti-tax referendum Proposition 13. On Friday, the conservative Herrington, who was Simon's campaign chairman in 2002, said he would support Schwarzenegger. "I decided to get off the fence," he said.
Adversity breeds such pragmatism. Republicans see the recall election as a critical opportunity to begin the rebuilding process after a series of devastating elections that shut them out of power in the state. Democrats control the governor's office, the state Assembly and Senate and every statewide constitutional office.
The last time a Republican running for president, governor or Senate won here was in 1994, when then-Gov. Pete Wilson did so by championing the anti-illegal immigration Proposition 187. The state party has been wracked by ideological warfare through much of the past decade, with conservatives often dominating intraparty activities but backing candidates who are unable to win statewide. The GOP debate over whom to support in the recall is the latest chapter in this struggle.
Schwarzenegger made several missteps in his first days as a candidate and to repair the damage spent much of past week working the conservative talk radio circuit. His goal, which his advisers and supporters talk about openly, is to build conservative support in hopes of forcing one or both of his major Republican opponents to drop out.
Prominent Republicans in the state are trying to steer conservative support toward Schwarzenegger, but McClintock said again today that he will not quit the race. "I'm confident the grass roots of the California Republican Party is very solidly behind me," he said on KNBC-TV.
Conservative leaders say Schwarzenegger cannot win without the support of the party's conservative wing, and recent polls bear that out. But these same leaders say Schwarzenegger must do more to demonstrate his conservative convictions.
"There's no question that it is very important for Republicans to try to win this office, and they would be willing to consider a candidate they would never otherwise consider, but that Republican has to make the case that they're better than Bustamante, and Schwarzenegger hasn't done that yet with conservatives," said former state GOP chairman Mike Schroeder.
Mike Spence, president of the California Republican Assembly, which has endorsed McClintock, said that despite Schwarzenegger's efforts to tack to the right, many conservatives will resist his appeals. Asked how conservatives will feel if they wake up on Oct. 8 with a Democrat still in power in Sacramento because the Republican vote splinters, he said, "I think we'll be disappointed that Schwarzenegger took away so many voters from our conservative candidate."
Social-issue conservatives in particular see little to like in Schwarzenegger, and their views may be reinforced by vulgar and salacious comments about sex, drugs and gays that he made in an interview with Oui magazine 26 years ago.
In his talk radio conversations, Schwarzenegger tried to put a conservative edge on his generally liberal social views. Although he supports abortion rights, he said, he opposes a controversial procedure critics call "partial birth" abortion. He said he supports gay rights but not gay marriage.
"Arnold is not going to bang away on the choice issue, he's not going to bang away on gay issues," said one of his advisers. "He's not in the face of social conservatives, and he will try to lock down fiscal conservatives."
The Oui magazine interview, however, inflamed religious conservatives. The Rev. Lou Sheldon of the Traditional Values Coalition called on the actor to repent for the "pagan and barbaric" behavior that was described in the interview. He has urged California legislators who support Schwarzenegger to reevaluate their position.
Ken Khachigian, a veteran GOP strategist, said that without trivializing social issues, the recall is about economic and fiscal issues and grew from "conservative, mainstream Republican" frustration with the size of state government, taxes and what he termed legislative excesses.
Schwarzenegger can expect to have continuing establishment help in trying to consolidate the conservative vote. State Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte reiterated this weekend his willingness to help talk second-tier GOP candidates out of the race. "California will be no better off if Gray Davis is recalled and Republican candidates finish two, three and four," Brulte said.
Haynes might be part of that effort. "I'm at the point," he said, "of saying to McClintock, 'Show you can bring the resources to the table to win, or get out of the way.' "
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