In Your Heart, You Know He's . . .
From the September 1 / September 8, 2003 issue: Not really a conservative (but it may not matter).
by Fred Barnes
09/01/2003, Volume 008, Issue 48
URL:http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/00...
RUSH LIMBAUGH, the king of talk radio, was one of Arnold Schwarzenegger's sharpest conservative critics. He zinged the actor-turned-candidate on his show and wrote in the Wall Street Journal that Schwarzenegger "has yet to embrace any conservative positions." But after Schwarzenegger's first press conference last week, in which he opposed raising taxes and backed spending cuts in the California state budget, Limbaugh began to change his mind. He was "encouraged by Arnold's performance" and said his candidacy for governor was "much further along" in stressing conservative ideas than even a few weeks ago. Schwarzenegger, Limbaugh found, has the "potential to 'own' the state."
Limbaugh's warming ("I still have reservations") is a measure of Schwarzenegger's progress in courting conservative voters for the October 7 recall election. And Limbaugh matters. Though not from California, he is a major factor in shaping grassroots conservative opinion. A California bellwether is Jim Brulte, the Republican leader in the state senate. Brulte has been a skeptic on the recall, worrying it could leave Republicans worse off if Gov. Gray Davis is removed, which is now likely, and replaced by a more popular Democrat such as Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. But Brulte was so impressed by Schwarzenegger that he belatedly endorsed the recall and declared the press conference performance "perfect."
Conservative Republican voters are the key to Schwarzenegger's election as governor. A moderate Republican, he has crossover appeal to independents and some Democrats. But to win in a Democratic state like California, a Republican must capture most of the conservative base. Schwarzenegger doesn't have to persuade conservatives he's one of them--which would be difficult, because he isn't--only that he's conservative enough.
The strategy Schwarzenegger is pursuing comes from Pete Wilson, not Ronald Reagan. Wilson, now co-chair of Schwarzenegger's campaign, was elected governor in 1990 and reelected in 1994 on basically four stands: fiscally conservative, tough on crime, pro-environment, and pro-abortion. Schwarzenegger is a Wilsonian on the environment and abortion, which is bound to displease conservatives. But neither is a critical issue in the recall election--nor is crime. That leaves taxes and spending as the defining issue of Schwarzenegger's campaign.
Here, Schwarzenegger showed himself to be a good conservative at his press conference. He fervently endorsed Prop. 13's limit on property taxes. He called for a "constitutional spending cap" on state expenditures. He used a medical analogy to support spending cuts: "Sometimes, as a surgeon will say, you have to cut to save the patient and this is what this situation is." Then he added, "Stop, stop, stop, with the spending." Schwarzenegger came close to ruling out any tax increases, insisting Californians "have not been undertaxed." (California is the second-highest tax state in the country.) Taxing "goes on all day long" in California, he said. "Tax, tax, tax, tax, tax."
But Schwarzenegger has declined to sign a blanket pledge of no new taxes. One reason, an aide said, was polling by his campaign that found a majority of voters didn't like a flat pledge. The problem is that candidates who balk at a no-tax pledge, once in office, often wind up hiking taxes. Thus some conservatives may avoid Schwarzenegger and stick with the two major Republican candidates who've taken the pledge--state senator Tom McClintock and Bill Simon, who lost to Davis in 2002.
The question is whether conservative instincts on taxes and spending will capture enough Republican voters. Wilson also had the crime issue, and Schwarzenegger may need a substitute. It won't be school choice. Schwarzenegger has already assured the California Teachers Association he's against vouchers. Ken Khachigian, an influential Republican, has suggested the death penalty, which is rarely applied in California. But, Khachigian concedes, Schwarzenegger might not be comfortable hammering on that issue. Maybe it would be wise for the Terminator to steer clear of capital punishment.
What does that leave? Leadership, the Schwarzenegger camp says. I rolled my eyes when I heard this, but maybe it will work for Schwarzenegger. He does have a commanding presence. At his press conference, he had total control over the gaggle of reporters. And though he was flanked by two intellectual heavyweights, investor Warren Buffett and former Secretary of State George Schultz, he used them essentially as props. Reagan once said having been an actor came in handy in politics, and Schwarzenegger reenforced that point with his flawless performance.
Two final questions: How should he deal with the other Republican candidates, and is Schwarzenegger the new Reagan? The answers are, one, he should let Republican leaders handle the other candidates at an appropriate time and, two, no. The time for coming to grips with his Republican foes is mid-September. If Schwarzenegger has a clear but not insurmountable lead over Bustamante, a Republican troika--Brulte, Republican state assembly leader Dave Cox, and state chair Duf Sundheim--will visit McClintock, Simon, and Peter Ueberroth, and urge them to drop out. In one poll, their cumulative vote matched Schwarzenegger's. If that holds, he'll lose. Winning may require Ueberroth and either McClintock or Simon to pack it in and endorse him.
The new Reagan? The best answer I've heard comes from Limbaugh. "I am not buying the Reagan comparison," he told me. "Reagan did not need two weeks of meetings with what basically amounted to coaching sessions to establish his core beliefs. . . . Reagan informed his advisers, not the other way around." But, Limbaugh said, "Arnold has shown, at least publicly, that he can learn. . . . I am encouraged and just want Arnold to be who he really is. He will be unstoppable if he will just do that." Unstoppable perhaps, but not quite Reaganesque.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard. |
